224
ACUS48 KWNS 280902
SWOD48
SPC AC 280900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Monday: Central/northern Great Plains...
A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima is
forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Great Plains
on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas,
along a surface trough. A warm front will lift northward across the
central/northern Plains through the day, with very rich low-level
moisture in place along/west of the warm front, and east of a weak
cold front that will move into the western Dakotas.

Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential for morning
convection to limit destabilization with eastward and northward
extent. However, moderate to strong buoyancy is forecast to develop
from parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska, with increasing low-level
and deep-layer shear supporting the potential for organized
convection. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in
the vicinity of the various surface boundaries across the region as
midlevel height falls overspread the region. Initial storms may
evolve into supercells, with a threat for all severe hazards. Some
upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread
eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of
western MN/IA by Monday night.

...D5/Tuesday: East-central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Some severe threat could develop on Tuesday from parts of the
east-central Plains into the upper Midwest, in conjunction with the
eastward-moving mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front.
Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection,
with potential for strong destabilization across areas where
stronger diurnal heating occurs.

However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the favored
corridor for severe thunderstorm development, given model
differences in handling of the upper trough, and the potential for
extensive antecedent convection. Severe probabilities will likely be
needed at some point for parts of the region in subsequent outlooks.

...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday...
Predictability begins to wane regarding the evolution of the surface
and upper patterns by mid to late next week. Some severe threat may
evolve across the Midwest on Wednesday in association with a cold
front. A developing northwesterly flow regime could result in
increasing severe potential across the Great Plains by Thursday into
Friday, but uncertainty remains high regarding the details.

..Dean.. 06/28/2024