Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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905 FXUS63 KDDC 191900 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...Updated Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will gradually decrease in coverage for the remainder of Wednesday. - Much below normal temperatures Wednesday. - A rapid warming trend is expected Thursday, through this weekend, into early next week, with little if any chance of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dual pol storm total precipitation radar estimates are in the 4-7 inch range, on a widespread basis, from southern Ford county, and southwest to the Oklahoma border, including Stevens, Seward and Meade counties. Rainfall estimates peak near 12 inches across southeast Stevens county, southeast of Hugoton. Radar depicted continued rain shower regeneration across these highly saturated zones; as such flood warnings remain in effect, with many roadways inundated. Airmass across SW KS is cloudy, cool and overturned from previous convection, which will keep any instability rebound limited in scope, to the 1000-1500 J/kg range, at best, through afternoon. As such, any redevelopment of strong convection, capable of additional heavy rainfall, is expected to be limited in coverage. Also the risk for any storms producing marginally severe wind/hail is very limited, and the 5% marginal wind/hail probability from SPC was removed as of 1630z. Will retain the flash flood watch for the southern counties adjacent to Oklahoma through 6 pm, where additional showers are probable, any of which will go directly to runoff in such a saturated environment. Still, models depict subsidence taking more control through evening, so the threat of additional heavy rainfall in flooded impact areas is low. Temperatures will struggle into the 70s this afternoon, given stratus, recent rainfall, and light east wind components. Tonight will be muggy and humid, given light SEly winds maintaining moisture flux with dewpoints in the 60s, along with standing water helping keep the lower boundary layer near saturation through sunrise Thursday. Areas of fog or mist are possible early Thursday, but opted to not include this in the grids for now. Temperatures will be in the 60s sunrise Thursday. Forcing for ascent appears weak, and grids are necessarily low. Most locations will remain dry. Much more typical June weather will return rapidly Thursday for the first day of summer. Strong midlevel high pressure ridging over the eastern U.S. Wednesday will expand westward onto the plains Thursday, with rising 500 mb heights, climbing over 590 dm. All models show strong warming at 850 mb, with a net warming of about +5C, easily supporting afternoon temperatures to bounce back to the 80s. Subsidence is even more established Thursday, supporting a dry forecast. South winds will increase noticeably, sustained near 20 mph, with gusts near 30 mph. The warming trend will continue into the coming weekend, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s Saturday. 12z GEFS ensemble members still support a 30% probability of temperatures over 100 across the favored Red Hills Saturday afternoon, but wet topsoils and standing water from recent rains will slow this warming process down somewhat. The first heatwave of the summer season is becoming apparent early next week, with 12z MEX/NBM guidance cranking out high temperatures near/over 100 Monday and Tuesday. A strongly subsident regime is forecast by late Monday, as a 596 dm upper high establishes over Arizona/New Mexico. 12z GEFS probability of 2m T > 100 is already near 90% across SW KS Monday afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1103 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Radar imagery at 15z depicted numerous rain showers near LBL and south of DDC, and surface observations showed areas of MVFR/IFR stratus persisting and light generally easterly winds. Rain coverage is expected to decrease, and flight categories generally improve, over the next several hours. Dry weather is expected to prevail for the remainder of this TAF period, with only a few mentions of VCSH. Light E/SE winds will prevail through 12z Thu. After 15z Thu, south winds increase at all airports, averaging 15-25 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ080-085>088. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Turner