246
FXUS63 KDDC 171908
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
208 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms with a wind threat mid to late evening

- Drier forecast Wednesday and Thursday

- More storm potential over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Late afternoon and evening storms are expected to form across the
high plains of Colorado later today. These storms should eventually
bear down on the Colorado/Kansas state line in the 5 to 7 pm time
frame. The storms are expected to move east and weaken as time goes
forward. The pops will start out the highest across the western zones
and then gradually dampen with time across central Kansas. For the
SE counties, they might not see much in storm potential as the line
weakens as it moves east. The boundary layer is expected to be very
warm and mixed, so the formation of DCAPE is likely. The main threat
with the storms are strong/damaging winds of 50+ mph. There is a
2 of 5 severe risk located across the far western counties to account
for this possibility. Storms should exit the entire region towards
the midnight hour, with the highest confidence of residual storms
located across central Kansas.

We will be between weather systems Wednesday and Thursday. This as
a large low carves out across the western United States. The net
result is a drier forecast for southwest Kansas with temperatures
still above normal. Highs in the 90s still looks on track for the
FA. Lows will be mild with a mix of 50s and 60s from west to
east. The small exception to the drier forecast is mainly across
the SE counties, where there is only a 15-20% of evening storms.
Otherwise, it should be clear for the majority of the FA.

Attention then turns to the Friday evening through the weekend time
frame. This as the mentioned low start to eject out across the plains
and potentially impact our weather. It should be noted that there
is considerable uncertainty with the second system. This is confirmed
by both the GEFS and EPS, with a wide range of QPF potential the
ensemble members. To add more complexity to this, the grand ensemble
does have fairly high probabilities of QPF > 0.10" over the weekend.
The GEFS and EPS QPF plumes also show considerable spread over the
weekend, further complicating the forecast. To summarize, there is
both too much spread in both the deterministic models as well as
the ensemble models to have any confidence in storm potential over
the weekend. The blended approach seems to be the way to go given
this uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR is expected through TAF pd. A line of storms is expected to form
across Colorado and march eastward into Kansas by mid to late evening.
Have the highest confidence of terminal impact at KGCK and KHYS,
with lower confidence for KDDC and possibly KLBL. Timing of the storms
looks to be in the 03Z-06Z time frame. +TSRA cannot be ruled out,
in particular for KGCK and the storms will likely be the most robust.
Outflow winds of 50+ kt may be possible with most severe of storms.
Confidence is a little low right now to insert in the TAFs of this
impact, but will continue to watch and amend if confidence increases
with the winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden