Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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369 FXUS63 KDDC 220939 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 439 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue across the southeast half of the area through mid morning. - Cloudy and much cooler with a few showers in the afternoon. - Slight chances for precipitation returns around Monday overnight and Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The last of the more organized shower and thunderstorm bands is overspreading the area at this time. Isolated areas of 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates ares evident in the MRMS data, however the rain is reasonably progressing eastward. Some runoff and ponding of water may be found this morning across the southeast counties, particularly from Ashland to Pratt and Medicine Lodge, as the rains move over areas that already received between about one and two inches last evening. An upper low will lift from Colorado to around the Nebraska and Kansas state line Today, while attendant mid to upper jet stretching from northeast NM across the DDC area and into eastern NE this morning, becomes positioned from the Panhandles into northern MO by late Today leaving a subsident shortwave ridge over western Kansas by this evening. As the rains end Today, cloudy and cool conditions will be leftover, as well as light winds. The deterministic models show and transient 1019 hPa surface anticyclone moving from eastern CO Today, into an elongated surface ridge over eastern Kansas by Monday. Some potential for dynamic lift resulting in showers is possible Monday and Monday night/early Tuesday as the nose of the northern stream jet pushes across the northern and central High Plains shown in the deterministic Canadian/EC/GFS. With respect to this, the GFS/EC ensemble means are relatively dry, but so show some potential for minimal 24 hour QPF totals over any period in the coming days which still leaves low confidence for any appreciable precipitation in the short to medium range. Beyond Tuesday, the synoptic pattern shifts to slowly eastward propagating amplified ridge from the desert southwest into the northern High Plains. Alot of uncertainty in the latter half of the week right now revolves around the possibility of a deep cutoff low developing somewhere in the Mississippi valley area or even farther west. Deterministic Global models are inconsistent with respect to the low level thermal fields over western Kansas Wednesday -Friday with outcomes ranging from 14 to 23 deg C for 850 temps over western Kansas resulting from surface wind trajectories and clouds cover. The NBM input 25th to 75th percentile highs on these days vary from highs around 70 degrees in the cooler solutions to low 80s on the warmer pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 437 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Rain exiting from west to east this morning with ceilings averaging between 2000 and 3000 ft this morning in the wake of lower IFR/MVFR ceilings rain. Anticipate improvement to VFR category ceilings later in the morning. As high pressure builds into the area from the west, winds will be northerly and light. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell