Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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006 FXUS63 KDDC 171615 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1115 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impactful surface winds for today and Tuesday. - Storm chances increase starting Tuesday afternoon with severe and flash flooding potential Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. - Cooling trend with temperatures mid week due to the clouds and rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 07z observations and upper air analysis show a deepening surface low located in northeast Colorado which is keeping the overnight surface winds in western Kansas at 20-30 mph sustained and gusts to 40 mph at times. With the well mixed boundary layer and warm air mass temperatures have been slow to fall and are in the mid to upper 70s. A low level jet has developed in western Kansas and with modest instability a few showers and storms have developed mainly in northwest Kansas. For today as the low level jet subsides the morning convection should be finished around sunrise and the rest of the day the impactful weather will be highlighted by the wind. The surface low in northeast Colorado will continue to strengthen as short term models are hinting the mb pressure falling into the 980s. As the lower levels become more well mixed with daytime heating we should see the winds increase after 10 am with the strongest winds and gusts in the late afternoon as the momentum transfer could bring 40-50 kts winds from 700 mb to the surface. I went with NBM90th percentile for sustained winds and gusts which would put us at 25-35 mph sustained and gusts to 45-50 mph. Late this afternoon a stout dryline will move into western Kansas and may set the stage for an isolated storm. With mid level temperatures forecast to be at 15-17 (C) there will be a strong cap for any convection to overcome but if a storm can break through it will have the shear and instability to produce hail and gusty winds. Tonight winds will remain strong through the night as the large surface low extends from north central Nebraska through northeast Colorado. A low level jet will develop in southwest Kansas and with a modest mid level shortwave a few CAMs are showing thunderstorm develop south and east of Dodge City. There will be warm mid levels in this area too (around 16 C) so if any convection that tries to develop will have to overcome a CAP and at this point I kept POPs below 20%. We won`t cool much in the overnight due to the well mixed surface layer as lows will be in the lower 70s. Tuesday most of the area will once again have strong southerly winds through the day as sustained winds should be 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. A strong cold front will move into northwest Kansas and short term models forecast the front stalling out roughly along a Syracuse to WaKeeney line. With a mid level shortwave moving in and cooling mid level temperatures we should see thunderstorms break out along the front starting in north central Kansas and extending south and west through the evening hours. With upper level winds running parallel to the front there isn`t much of a push to the south and we could see these storms basically train along the front and areas of heavy rain roughly north and west of a Liberal to La Crosse line are in play. WPC guidance has a large area of 1-2 inches of rain in these areas. Ensemble forecast also tend to agree with 1-2 inches in the median range and higher outputs of 3 inches possible. Severe weather is also possible and with a good baroclinic zone and lower level shear...hail, wind, and and isolated tornado are all possible. Wednesday the higher chances of rain continue as much of southwest Kansas has POPs in the 50-60% range. The frontal boundary will remain stationary from Elkhart to Hays and with a mid level shortwave providing the lift another round of widespread rain and thunderstorms will move across southwest Kansas. Thursday as the upper level winds turn more southerly the front should lift north as a warm front and our rain chances will end. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Tuesday morning. Southerly winds 20 to 30kt with gusts up to 35kt through late afternoon are expected to increase to around 25 to 35kt with gusts up to 45kt this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure further deepens in extreme southeast Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through late tonight for KSZ043-061-062. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...JJohnson