569
FXUS63 KDDC 260121
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
821 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak dry cold front will pass through southwest Kansas
  Tuesday night and early Wednesday, followed by a northeast to
  east wind Wednesday, and a slight reduction in the heat.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday night, and again
  through the upcoming weekend.

- Another break in the hot afternoon temperatures is expected
  this weekend as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Did a forecast update a few hours ago to remove all pops for
showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Radar and satellite
at 8 pm showed a lone supercell in progress over northern
Oklahoma, and scattered convection in the Texas Panhandle.
Despite high boundary layer moisture and instability (91/72 at
DDC at this writing), subsidence will prevail through tonight
with a dry forecast. A dry cold front and associated northeast
wind shift is expected to be along the I-70 corridor by 4 am
Wednesday, then progress quickly southwest through SW KS through
sunrise. Northeast winds will increase and become modestly gusty
through sunrise. After mixing kicks in after 10 am, northeast
winds will gust in the 25-30 mph range for a few hours during
midday Wednesday. Some seasonably weak cold advection is
forecast by the models, shaving 4-5C off at 850 mb tomorrow.
After a hot Tuesday (highs of 103 at P28/EHA, 98 at DDC),
elected to follow the "cooler" NBM guidance in the mid 90s.
Can`t expect much cooling behind a cool front in late June.
Still, apparent temperature grids suggest a heat advisory will
not be required Wednesday (heat index < 105).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Temperature and dew points early this afternoon have combined
for heat indices in the mid and upper 90s and 101 and 103F at
LaCrosse and Medicine Lodge respectively, with still plenty of
heating to go this afternoon, supporting the heat advisory that
remains in effect everywhere east of a Wakeeney to Liberal Line.
Of the various members of the HREF (short term ensemble) only a
lone, typically over-convecting CAM is continuing to produce
thunderstorms along the incoming surface boundary latest his
afternoon and evening (the Hi-Res ARW). The marginal risk had
been trimmed back to mainly the southeast counties. Therefore
any severe risk is really minimal and very low confidence this
afternoon  but not zero.

A progressive upper pattern will help drive high plains MCS
activity over the next couple of nights, starting with Wednesday
night and beyond. The dome of hot air is going nowhere, but the
atmosphere across central and southwest Kansas will be
regionally modified by a cold front late tonight (Tuesday),
bringing a slight respite to the heat risk levels as well
Wednesday and Thursday, with a return on Friday but with
uncertainty. The latest NBM bumps precipitation probabilities to
50% and higher north of K-96 Wednesday night and Thursday.
Wednesday will bring post frontal easterly surface winds while
returning to a more breezy/marginally windy day Thursday with
southerly gusty winds returning ahead of the redeveloping lee
troughing.

Friday may bring heat risk back, mainly to the southeast
counties. The Probability of apparent temperatures exceeding 104
degrees (105 is the threshold for heat advisories) in only
around 20-40% based on the grand ensembles - and focused from
around Clark State Lake to Pratt and areas south of there.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Excellent flying weather will continue through 12z Wed with
VFR/SKC and light winds, less than 10 kts, variable in
direction. A dry cold front will pass through the airports
09-12z Wed, with an increase in northeast winds and modest
NEly gusts to near 20 kts. After 15z Wed, NE winds will increase
further, with gusts of 25-30 kts for a few hours through peak
mixing midday Wednesday. After 21z Wed, winds will diminish and
trend easterly at all airports.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-077>081-086>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Turner