582
FXUS63 KDDC 231900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A hot Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 100s.

- Heat advisory criteria (105 HI or greater) is possible Monday
  and likely Tuesday for the Red Hills and areas east of highway
  183.

- Storm chances return Tuesday night in central Kansas and
  Wednesday night with an overnight MCS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Surface observations and upper air analysis shows a building
594 dm high in the Texas panhandle with a shortwave riding on
the north side of the high in southern Colorado which has led to
some developing storms south and east of Pueblo. Dewpoints in
western Kansas are ranging from the low 60s to low 70s but are
expected to mix out through the afternoon as winds turn to the
southwest. A trough of low pressure is also located in eastern
Colorado which is providing convergence at the surface to aid in
the lift for the developing storms.

For this evening CAMs are in good agreement that with the lower
level moisture mixing out between 19-02Z that the storms in
eastern Colorado could make it to the state line and then
quickly diminish after sunset. With the lack of lower level
moisture and little CAPE severe weather is not anticipated
however we could see some brief gusty winds from the storms.

Heading into Monday we should see the 594 dm high retrograde
more into the desert southwest and with a 700 mb shortwave
moving into eastern Colorado we should have a surface low
develop east of the Denver metro. This will bring in breezy
southwest winds through the day and combining with good sunshine
we should have air temperatures reach easily to around 100
degrees. With the southwest winds HREF have shown mixing out the
lower level moisture with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s
in our eastern zones which will make it harder to reach advisory
criteria but we should still get to around 105 which justifies
having one out. By late afternoon into the early evening as the
700 mb shortwave moves into NW Kansas CAMs have been showing
some isolated convection developing in NW Kansas and moving
along the I-70 corridor through sunset and as a result some
small POPS (~20%) have been put in.

Tuesday we should once again see highs in the low 100s and more
confidence that the Red Hills and east of highway 183 will reach
heat advisory criteria. Forecast NBM apparent temperatures will
be in the 104-107 range and combining with an approaching weak
cold front we should also get a bump in temperatures with
compressional heating. By late afternoon with a 700 mb shortwave
coming out of the northwest and slight cooling in the mid levels
we should see a band of thunderstorms develop along the front
mainly in south central and central Kansas. Best opportunity for
storms will be southeast of Dodge City. SPC and CSU-MLP both
have a marginal risk that some of these storms could be severe
with mainly a wind and hail threat.

We should see a slight cooldown in temps for Wednesday and
Thursday with long term ensembles showing a high building in
Nebraska leading to east to northeast winds across Kansas and
the 596dm high moving west and breaking down in the desert
southwest. A shortwave in the Colorado rockies Wednesday
afternoon is forecast to develop a MCS which will move across
southwest Kansas Wednesday night and NBM POPs have responded
with widespread 30-40% chances of rain and storms. After a brief
warmup back to near 100 on Friday more rain and storms as well
as cooler conditions are possible on Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A
few isolated storms could approach areas to the west of LBL and
GCK but at this point left the VCTS out as they should stay
several miles away from the runways. Winds in general should
stay under 15 kts through 15Z Monday and then winds should start
to pick up to 15-25 kts through 18Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ030-031-046-
065-066-081-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro