Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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318 FXUS63 KDDC 212045 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain is likely tonight across the southern tier from Ashland to Pratt and Medicine Lodge and possibly into southern Ford county. - Temperatures will likely not get above the 50s Sunday afternoon. - An upper level storm system will develop over Kansas by Tuesday and then intensify to the southeast or east of here by mid-week. There are small chances for rain Tuesday (10-20%) and then again Thursday and Friday (10-20%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A deep upper low over New Mexico will weaken as it moves into confluent flow over the central plains Sunday. A northern stream trough will push a cold front into southwest Kansas late tonight and through all of southwest Kansas Sunday morning. As the upper trough approaches, a low to mid level baroclinic zone will set up across southwest Kansas. Plentiful low level moisture will interact with this thermal gradient to yield rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The various models and ensembles have steadily trended southward over the past 48 hours and continue to trend south today, including the HRRR/RAP as well as the ensemble means of ICON/CMCE/ECMWF and GEFS. The ensemble means indicate 50-80% chances of 1" or greater of rain along and south of a line from Elkhart to Bucklin to Stafford, with localized 1 to 2" rain amounts. The best chance of the heaviest totals is in vicinity of Ashland, Coldwater, Medicine Lodge and Pratt and possibly northward to Bucklin and Larned. Lighter rain amounts of less than 1" are expected north of the heaviest rain band, with the lightest in Scott City, WaKeeney and Hays. The rain will gradually taper off from west to east Sunday morning into the afternoon. Low stratus will hang around much of the day Sunday, with some breaks possible later in the day. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s. If sunshine does not materialize, then afternoon temperatures will only be in the mid 50s. If sun returns in the afternoon, then readings in the upper 50s to near 60 are possible. As the aforementioned system slowly exits, temperatures will bottom out in the 40s Sunday night as weak surface high pressure settles across the high plains, with lower 40s across the far west where skies will be clear and upper 40s in central Kansas where higher dewpoints will reside. Highs will warm into the 70s for Monday as full sun returns. However, another upper level system will dig southeastward out of Canada and close off over the southern plains or Deep South by Tuesday-Friday. A few light showers are possible Tuesday before the system closes off. Significant moisture will be slow to return into this system initially so that partial sun will lead to highs in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. However, by late week, moisture may wrap around the system and bring better chances for showers into south central Kansas and maybe even farther north and west. The ensemble mean of the ECMWF indicates .1 to .25" rain amounts in central Kansas for the Thursday night to Saturday time frame, which is drier than the operational run. The CMCE mean is farther east and shows even lighter amounts. The GEFS is also farther east with the upper trough like the CMCE. Thus, some of the wetter ensemble members of the ECMWF are outliers and may be too far west with the upper trough, and therefore too wet. A drier solution would mean highs in the 70s, but highs could only be in the 60s if rain occurs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A strong upper level disturbance will traverse the plains tonight into Sunday. Widespread showers with a few rumbles of thunder are expected to develop and move eastward across the TAF sites this afternoon through Sunday morning along and in the wake of a cold front. VFR CIGS will lower to MVFR CIGS this evening, with the lower CIGS during periods of moderate to heavy rain. Strong cold advection will develop between 06 and 09z, resulting in low MVFR or IFR CIGS developing and persisting through the end of the period. Some insolation is possible after the end of the period, resulting in improving CIGS to MVFR. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Finch