005
FXUS63 KDDC 241030
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated to scattered shower possible this morning
  but measurable precipitation is unlikely

- Expected highs for rest of the week averaging between about
  77-84 degrees, with warmest temperatures in the west

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers were added with slight chances (15%) across the eastern
sections of the area (Wakeeney-Hays and south through the
highway 183 corridor and eastward) through about noon. This a
result of upstream MRMS composite reflectivity showing a broad
area of rain, void of any lightning moving southeast across most
of central Nebraska in to northern Kansas associated with a
broad 700-400mb differential vorticity advection. HREF CAM
members to varying degrees spread this light reflectivity south
and east through central Kansas through the mid morning. Sun
should return by afternoon following the cloudiness and possible
light rain of the morning. As for the mean 24hr QPF multiple
run trends , the ec ensemble mean does how minimal QPF ( Hays
0.02 and Pratt 0.01) Tuesday Night  while the GEFS is
completely dry. The NBM has removed any appreciable POPs,
meaning measurable rain, from the forecast for this timeframe
(10% or less).

Appreciable pops have been removed by the NBM going forward as
well through the next weekend and beyond. The breezy conditions
of this afternoon will be the strongest winds of the week as
persistent surface ridging to the northeast provides light and
variable winds overnight, mixing out to light and easterly in
direction each afternoon.

Looking farther out, the CPC outlook for days 8-14,
specifically the first week of October, describes temperatures
leaning above normal (a 40 to 50 percent chance), and
precipitation leaning below normal (also a 40 to 50 percent
chance).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Northerly surface gusts will develop in the west as a transient
weak low pressure area moves from the I-70 corridor to south
east of DDC between 12 and 21 UTC. LAMP guidance is giving gusts
near 20 knots at DDC, and closer to 27 knots for GCK and LBL
between 17 and 22 UTC. Other than that that, no restrictions as
VFR category is expected - although a few spotty showers are
possible in the hays area this morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell