Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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490 FXUS63 KDDC 110426 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1126 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend begins today and persists through Thursday with afternoon highs reaching to low 100s Thursday. - Showers/thunderstorms are possible Thursday night along a weak cold front, favoring the northern zones. - Another chance for precipitation exists sometime around Saturday, favoring the western half of our area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal rather weak 500-mb flow is in place above the central plains as the main belt of the subtropical jet is displaced just to the north. At the surface, a ~1002-mb low is spread out across eastern MT/WY/CO, supporting southeasterly winds over southwest KS. Throughout the short term period, ensembles agree 500-mb heights will gradually rise as a ridge begins to build atop the southern plains, along with generally southerly surface winds as the surface low tracks east ahead of an upper level shortwave impulse riding the US/Canada border. These factors will contribute to a quiet, warming trend for our area, as afternoon highs increase from the low 80s today to the mid/upper 80s tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles agree southwest KS will be along the interface of a building ridge over the southern plains and the subtropical jet, resulting in weak northwesterly 500-mb flow. As the ridge continues to build and move east Wednesday and Thursday, the warming trend will march on with afternoon highs increasing from the mid 90s Wednesday to the low 100s Thursday. Thursday night, a weak cold front attached to a surface low over central Quebec, Canada, will sag south into our area before washing out early Friday. Ensembles suggests showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front, as probability of QPF > 0.01" increases into the 30-60% range favoring the northern zones. Severe storms may be possible with this activity as well, however confidence is low at the moment. Daytime Friday, ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will begin to weaken and shift east as a compact shortwave trough moves east-northeast from near the CA/AZ border across the Desert Southwest. As this feature approaches, decreasing 500-mb heights should support a slight cooldown in temperatures with afternoon highs dropping into the 90s Friday through the end of the period. Additionally, this wave will reinvigorate the precipitation chances for southwest KS. Both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS indicate probability of QPF > 0.01" reaching the 60-90% range for roughly the western half of our CWA, centered around the late Friday night to Saturday night time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites throughout the period. Light southerly winds are expected to persist though much of the period as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...JJohnson