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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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542 FXUS63 KDDC 282029 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 329 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the northern third of the forecast area after 10 pm. - Heat indices at or above 105 degrees continuing this afternoon. - Additional storm chances continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Drought improvement has been seen on the latest U.S Drought Monitor, where Moderate drought has been removed across large portions of Morton, Seward, Meade, Gray and Ford counties. Moderate to pockets of severe drought remain across parts of Stanton, Haskell, Grant, Hodgeman, Pawnee and Rush counties...as well as the red hills region. As for the remaining drought areas, the good news is that overnight Thursday rains on the order of 1-2 inches along the Kansas Oklahoma line, have not yet influenced the drought monitor. The bulk of these heavier rains fell across southern Pratt, and across all of Barber county. Additional rain in the coming days will continue to work on the remain dry and drought conditions. Starting with convective chances this evening both southeast and much later north. Isolated late afternoon showers or storms may pop up on a weak cold front/surface convergence zone over the southeast counties. A more significant area of storms however are advertised by all of the CAMS to slide off the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska, with the potential to bring damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and hail to the I-70 corridor in the late evening and midnight timeframe. With these storms, the chances taper off southward across the highway 400 corridor. With the with to a northerly wind and some cold advection, temperatures on Saturday will to be as hot, with a welcome respite from the heat advisory criterion. A marked increase in precipitation chances begin early Saturday evening around Elkhart, expanding across the entire area at around 60% chances through the overnight. Areal QPF from the WPC is forecasting a broad half to three quarters of an inc h of rain area-wide while the northeast sections have upwards of 2 inches of QPF (forecast rainfall). Monday is probably warmer, back in to the upper 90s or low 100s with minimal precipitation chances (10-20%) across the north. Daily thunderstorm chances will persist throughout this 7 day outlook as the 24h hour ensemble have low qpf in about every period though the weekend making a highly uncertain, day to day mesoscale forecast challenge. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions will be in place across all terminals this afternoon, and most of this evening, at least through about midnight or 05z. At that point, convection with a severe wind (60 mph gusts) and a 2 inch hail risk will be found mainly in the north (HYS). About a 25% chances of storms at HYS for any given hour beyond 5z through about 10-11z. Additionally, some risk for thunderstorms impacting the other terminals as well, however, chances are not as high and severe storms risks are not likely. Any cigs look to remain mid level as the HREF ensembles show about a 65% chance for mid level clouds overnight and negligible low clouds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-080-081- 088>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell