240
FXUS63 KDDC 162324
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms this evening with the highest confidence
  across west central Kansas

- A better chance (~40 to 60%) of storms tomorrow, with the
  highest confidence west of Dodge City

- Next shot at storms on Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A weak dryline has formed along the Highway 83 corridor this afternoon.
Dewpoints east of this boundary are in the 60s. This dryline is associated
with lower surface pressure across eastern Colorado in the form of
a sfc trof. Satellite water vapor channel shows a large UL low located
across central California. The combination of a weak wave moving
upstream of the main low and boundary layer moisture will lead to
1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE developing across western Kansas this afternoon
and evening. As a result of the weak wave and low level instability,
still expect isolated storms to develop this afternoon and evening.
Have the highest of confidence of storms in closer proximity near
the sfc trof across west central Kansas. There might be enough convergence
along the dryline farther south to spark off an isolated storm as
well. Unfortunately, the rest of the FA is likely to remain storm
free through this evening.

The large upper level low will continue to move east Tuesday and should
be near the Idaho/Utah region during the day. Low level moisture
upstream of this low will continue across the FA with dewpoints remaining
in the 50s and 60s. With the approaching upper level low, enough
CAPE, and convergence along the dryline/sfc trof, storms looks likely
to develop along and west of Highway 83 Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Several CAMs show this line of convective evolution. From a probabilistic
messaging source, the grand ensemble has increasing probabilities
(40 to 80%) of QPF > 0.10" during this time across western Kansas,
which matches well with deterministic sources. As such, will keep
the highest pops along and west of Dodge City Tuesday. It is uncertain
though how far east this activity will make it across the eastern
FA Tuesday evening. This matches well with decreasing probabilities
of higher QPF from the grand ensemble farther east. With the boundary
layer forecast to be mixed, there might be a strong/severe wind threat
with the storms.

It looks like we will be in between weather systems Wednesday and
Thursday. This deterministic flow pattern matches well with GEFS
and EPS QPF, which shows very little during these two days. Attention
then turns to the Friday time frame. Both GEFS and EPS shows the
potential for more storms during this data. This matches up with
the probabilistic messaging source from the grand ensemble, which
has increasing probabilities of QPF > 0.10" during this period.

Beyond Friday, confidence drops off quickly on how the synoptic pattern
will evolve over the weekend. EPS ensembles are giving a very unclear
signal on storm potential. GEFS ensembles as pretty unclear as well.
As a result of the increasing uncertainty, will continue with the
blended pops over the weekend for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR is expected through TAF pd. -TSRA/CB will be possible this evening
for KHYS and have included this in the TAF. There is a slight chance
of -TSRA at KDDC as well, however, confidence is low enough to not
include in the TAF for now. Will continue to monitor an adjust as
necessary. Otherwise, the rest of the terminals should see little
aviation impacts through the morning. SE/S winds 15-20 kt will decrease
slightly 12-15 kt this evening. Winds will increase once again 15-20
kt with gusts around 25 kt tomorrow with continued lee troughing.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Numerous showers are across parts of the region  particularly
west of Garden City and south of the Liberal terminal. These
showers are associates with a surface trough extending from
northeast NM into sw NE. Much of the activity will cease with
the loss of daytime heating. Lightning is very isolated. Expect
VFR ceilings but locally brief moderate rain is the more
isolated thunderstorms. Gusty south winds should remain ongoing
though the evening, before gusts decouple according to local mos
guidance by the overnight hours.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell