Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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212 FXUS63 KDDC 191003 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 503 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms for much of the morning today and cooler temperatures through the afternoon. - Warming trend for the end of the week and hot temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 07z observations and upper air analysis has a line of strong storms located in the Oklahoma and far northern Texas panhandle with a large area of stratiform rainfall to the north extending from Elkhart to Salina. This line of rain is basically straddling slow moving cold front. In the upper levels we continue with southwest flow in the 500 mb layer with a shortwave in the vicinity of the front which is providing the lift to keep the storms going. Overall today for much of the morning we should see the widespread rain continue. Models have had a hard time picking up on the location of the front as all of them have the boundary much further north into Kansas and as such that is where they are putting the highest rainfall. We should see some northward propagation of the front by late morning and with continued lift in the 700 mb layer we could receiving another 0.25-0.75 inches of additional rainfall with the highest POPs (60-70%) along the KS-OK border and lower POPs as you move north. With rainfall estimates from Tuesday`s storms showing localized amounts of 2-5 inches the flood watch will continue for much of southwest Kansas. Rain should become more spotty in nature by the afternoon as the main forcing in the upper levels weakens and exits with the main area of light rain along the KS-CO border. With the extensive cloud cover, rainfall, and east to northeast winds the temperatures today will be much cooler for mid June standards as highs will get into the 70s. Rain should diminish and wrap up by tonight and the clouds will break up as we go into Thursday which will start our warming trend. With more sunshine and boundary layer winds picking up out of the south we should see highs reach into the 80s. Ensemble trends into the weekend show the large high in the eastern CONUS retrograding into the central plains which will lift the polar jet stream up to along the CONUS-Canadian border. This will cut down our chances of rain dramatically for the rest of the long term outlook and increase our confidence in a stretch of hot weather. We will have certain probabilities of >90 degree highs (90-100%) for southwest Kansas Saturday- Wednesday and high probabilities (60-80%) of >100 degree highs Monday-Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 MVFR to IFR flight category through 18Z as a large area of scattered rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across southwest Kansas. After 18z cloud ceilings should slowly increase and the coverage of rain will diminish. All terminals should be in VFR flight category by late afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ030-031-044>046- 063>066-076>080-085>088. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro