Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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567 FXUS63 KDDC 081130 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for Saturday evening, as a larger thunderstorm complex likely to develop with severe wind gusts to 75 mph and a greater probability of 1"+ rainfall across much of southwest Kansas (30 to 50% chance from Scott City to Dodge City, Kinsley and Pratt - Ness City and Dighton). - Shower and Thunderstorm chances continue, albeit lower, Sunday and Monday, but core of highest rainfall likely just south of southwest Kansas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Clouds will play a role in limiting or not how warm the temperatures get afternoon. There is about a 5-6 deg F difference between the 25th and 75th percentile for afternoon highs a t any given location, (88 to 93 at Garden, 83 to 88 at Hays and 94 to 100 degrees at Liberal for examples). Light north winds I the morning will veer as warm advection develops to a more easterly trajectory, aiding in spreading higher low 60s dew points back westward to around Syracuse to Liberal. The highest confidence severe and excessive rainfall event looks poised to develop late this afternoon and evening as many cams/hi-resolution model solutions have forecast an MCS for the area. An are of shortwave vorticity at 500 mb is noted near Great Salt Lake and forecast by most models to lift advance downstream to northeast Colorado kicking off convection in the upslope deeply mixed high terrain environment in the afternoon. Diurnal warming in the west and increasing surface dew points on easterly upslope surface winds are leading to HREF mean Most Unstable CAPE values in the 2000-2500 J/kg over a broad area west of the highway 283 corridor. A few of the HREF cams members were in great agreement of and MCS being driven from northeast Colorado into west central Kansas between around 5 pm and 8 pm CDT. Severe winds are the top risk while and hail also a threat. Heavy rainfall may lead to some areas of flash flooding as the HREF probability matches means paint an area of 1.5 to 2.5 rainfalls with a limited higher area to about 4 inches north of the highway 400 corridor, in the 6 hour period ending at 1 am CDT. The high res ensemble mean shows an an uptick to PWAT values between 1.2 and 1.4 inches before the progressive MCS moves through, meaning high rainfall rates can be expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Sunday starts a return to a southerly surface flow will likely result in more sun and a general northerly shift in the axis of 60s dew points at the surface, with virtually no upper jet in the immediate region. Any convection in this period would be most favored farther south in the richer surface moisture of the red river valley and anchored closer to a segment of the split flow westerlies across central Texas. Temperatures resume the summer-like 90s by midweek. The warmest day of the week is Thursday where the NBM if forecasting widespread upper 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR will continue through 00z Sun, with a mix of mid and high clouds and light easterly wind components. High confidence of a thunderstorm complex developing NW of GCK by 00z Sun, then tracking eastward to impact GCK/DDC/HYS through 03z Sun. Primary risk from storms will be outflow winds gusting in excess of 50 kts. Convective TEMPO groups are expected to be required by the 18z TAF issuance, with 00z ARW offering a good template. High confidence flight categories will degrade sharply after the MCS exits, with IFR or lower stratus arriving at the airports through 12z Sun. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Turner