030
FXUS63 KDDC 071653
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First 100-degree heat forecast This afternoon (60-90%
  probability of exceedance 100+ degrees for Liberal, Elkhart,
  Johnson, Hugoton, Ulysses, Garden City, Scott City, Dighton,
  Meade, Dodge City, Jetmore, Ness City).

- Widely Scattered early morning showers and thunderstorms
  mainly between Ark River and Oklahoma line, followed by
  another chance of storms later in the afternoon and Tonight.
  Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe weather


- Increased likelihood of large thunderstorm system Saturday
  Night with probability of precipitation increased to 60% for
  much of the southwest Kansas region and as high as 70 percent
  in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A broad 1015 hPa surface high was dominating the region this
morning. A stationary boundary to the south of Kansas was a
focus for decaying thunderstorms. The best mid level winds were
across the Missouri valley and eastern Kansas as weak easterly
upslope winds at the surface in western Kansas were juxtaposed
with a strong moisture/temperatures/CAPE gradient directed into
the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.

The aforementioned anticyclone centered over the central Plains
This morning will shift into the Mississippi valley over the
next 24 hours, intensifying the lee troughing over Colorado. A
resultant height gradient develops Today with initial burst of
warm air advection over the southwest this morning and
increasing surface winds due to both gradient and mixing. A few
shower and thunderstorms may (low chances around 20%) develop
along the developing warm front from Scott City and Garden city
 eastward as the day progresses. Hot temperatures equal or in
excess of 100 degrees are forecast for most of the area west of
highway 283 will be a result of the full insolation, and
downslope of an already warm airmass of descending air parcels
from the western high plains. That warmup will follow a brief
morning window of 30% probability for rain in thunderstorms
probabilities that will shift into the Greensburg, Pratt
Coldwater to Medicine Lodge areas in the early afternoon hours.

Marginal severe weather risk returns on a limited areal
coverage basis (5% wind and hail probability) as early as 5 pm
in the extreme west and moving east across the area through the
late evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Saturday look much more convectively active. The global
deterministic models GFS/EC/Canadian all three generate an
inverted trough or surface low across the NE New
Mexico/Panhandles region that expends northeast into southwest
and south central Kansas by midday. And by the same times, same
models have western Kansas increasingly under a 500 mb level
right jet entrance region and equatorward advancing colder
airmass out of the northern Plains. However the location tracks
for evening MCS activity are all different with respect to max
rains  but these deterministic models do show localized 1 inch
or more bullseye of max mean rainfall somewhere between the
I-70 corridor and hwy 400/54 corridors. The GFS ensemble is
showing a strongly trending heavy rain signal for highest
amounts farther south over the KS/OK line and the Liberal area
for mean amounts in excess of 2 inches.


Sunday and Monday bring an overall respite from the hot weather
of Friday, as highs are forecast in the 70s. Sunday may wind up
cool and cloudy following the Saturday night MCS activity as
easterly upslope flow reinforces the cloud production and Monday
looks equally influenced by the recirculating aid from the
northern plains surface high. The period into Tuesday look
highly uncertain but still potentially wet with convection any
given day but without any organized severe as the split flow
jets leave Kansas under light winds in the mid levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Small clusters of showers and weak thunderstorms were pushing
east away from DDC and HYS terminals at the onset of this TAF
period. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest during
the afternoon, topping out 20 to 25 knots sustained for a few
hours late in the afternoon prior to surface-based thunderstorms
developing across far southwest Kansas. This new TAF will refine
the thunderstorm forecast, going with a 3-hr period of VCTS in
the early to mid evening hours. Winds are expected to be quite
gusty near thunderstorms. By late evening, thunderstorm risk
will move east of southwest and west central Kansas with fairly
light winds expected the remainder of the night.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid