Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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181 FXUS63 KDDC 120734 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Thursday with afternoon highs up around 100F. - There is a 40-60% chance for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Tranquil conditions are forecast today into tonight as the SREF indicates ridging aloft building slowly northeast across the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. Despite ample moisture return into the region, an extremely weak flow aloft and subsidence associated with the approaching trough axis will hinder precip chances through the period. Prevailing southerlies will further pull warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures pushing up above 25C in central Kansas to near 30C near the Colorado border. The latest HREF shows a widespread 100% probability of temperatures exceeding 90F this afternoon with a 80-90% probability of highs topping 95F in extreme southwest Kansas. For tonight, look for lows mainly in the 60s(F) with the HREF painting an 80-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 70F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) are forecast for portions of western Kansas late Thursday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level shortwave trough cresting a ridge axis in the Colorado Rockies before dipping southeast through the Western High Plains, interacting with a projected near-stalled frontal boundary generally bisecting western Kansas. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient instability present will lead to potential diurnally driven thunderstorm development in vicinity of the frontal boundary late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. However, the latest NBM points to only a 10-20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch by early Friday morning. More significant thunderstorm chances (40-60%) can be expected late Friday as an upper level shortwave trough is still projected to lift northeast through the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies. Pooling moisture ahead of a deepening lee side trough will push surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F), providing ample instability. Thunderstorm development is expected late Friday afternoon across the high plains of southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico as H5 vort maxima eject out of the approaching trough axis within an intensifying southwest flow aloft, then spreading into southwest Kansas Friday evening. The HREF supports more significant chances for rainfall with a 30-40% probability for 12-hr QPF topping one- quarter inch across much of southwest Kansas by early Saturday morning. Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected Thursday as prevailing low level southerlies reinforce a warming air mass across the high plains, pushing H85 temperatures into the upper 20s(C) in central Kansas to a little above 30C in extreme southwest Kansas. The NBM paints a 70-80% probability of afternoon highs climbing above 95F in west central and central Kansas with a 70-80% probability of temperatures nudging above 100F in extreme southwest Kansas. More seasonal temperatures return by Saturday with increased cloud cover and expected shower/thunderstorm development. This is supported by the NBM indicating only a 50-70% probability of highs exceeding 90F. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through the period. Light southerly winds through late Wednesday morning are expected to increase 15 to 30kt in the afternoon as lee side troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson