Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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335 FXUS63 KDDC 240811 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 311 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated to scattered shower possible this morning but measurable precipitation is unlikely - Expected highs for rest of the week averaging between about 77-84 degrees, with warmest temperatures in the west && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers were added with slight chances (15%) across the eastern sections of the area (Wakeeney-Hays and south through the highway 183 corridor and eastward) through about noon. This a result of upstream MRMS composite reflectivity showing a broad area of rain, void of any lightning moving southeast across most of central Nebraska in to northern Kansas associated with a broad 700-400mb differential vorticity advection. HREF CAM members to varying degrees spread this light reflectivity south and east through central Kansas through the mid morning. Sun should return by afternoon following the cloudiness and possible light rain of the morning. As for the mean 24hr QPF multiple run trends , the ec ensemble mean does how minimal QPF ( Hays 0.02 and Pratt 0.01) Tuesday Night while the GEFS is completely dry. The NBM has removed any appreciable POPs, meaning measurable rain, from the forecast for this timeframe (10% or less). Appreciable pops have been removed by the NBM going forward as well through the next weekend and beyond. The breezy conditions of this afternoon will be the strongest winds of the week as persistent surface ridging to the northeast provides light and variable winds overnight, mixing out to light and easterly in direction each afternoon. Looking farther out, the CPC outlook for days 8-14, specifically the first week of October, describes temperatures leaning above normal (a 40 to 50 percent chance), and precipitation leaning below normal (also a 40 to 50 percent chance). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An upper jet is forcing widespread high level cirriform clouds across western Nebraska, while a leading area of upper divergence is resulting in a more scattered to broken cirrus belt moving southeast across northwest Kansas. A dry boundary layer ridge is providing light and variable winds Tonight, and the slightest surface warming and mixing, will help mix northerly gusts to the surface in the west where a transient weak low pressure area moves from the I-70 corridor to south east of DDC between 12 and 21 UTC. LAMP guidance is giving gusts near 20 knots at DDC, and closer to 27 knots for GCK and LBL between 17 and 22 UTC. Other than that that, no restrictions as VFR category is expected. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell