Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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702 FXUS63 KDDC 231942 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures through the end of the work week will be near or below the seasonal normals for this time of year. Chance for highs to be >80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday is 15 to 40%. The high chances will be south and west of Dodge City. - Slight chance for sprinkles or light rain showers early Tuesday. Rainfall will be light with less than a 10% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding 0.05" east of Highway 183. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Short term ensembles are in good agreement, with a -16C 500mb upper level trough located over Montana at 12z Monday, moving southeast across the Central and Northern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper trough passes, cooler air will filter into Kansas behind a surface cold front. This reinforcement of cooler air will keep temperatures unseasonably cool through midweek, with highs mainly in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50. Any chance of warmer temperatures will return later in the week as an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies. The timing of the any late week warm up remains uncertain (20-40% confidence with warmer temperatures) due to differing ensemble cluster solutions regarding the development and track of an upper low over the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. This will affect how the improving downslope flow across eastern Colorado interacts with the cooler easterly winds across western Kansas. The cooler air advecting into western Kansas late in the week, forecast by up to half of the ensemble clusters, could easily delay any potential warmup. The good news is that even with this uncertainty on how cool/warm the ensembles clusters are forecasting temperatures to be at this time, all of these ensembles forecast highs near or below the seasonal normals. Chance for highs to be >80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday is 15 to 40%. The high chances will be south and west of Dodge City. Precipitation chances over the next seven days will be focused on Tuesday and late Friday into the weekend. Early Tuesday, there is a 15-20% chance of sprinkles or very light rain showers as an upper trough crosses the Central Plains, with less than a 10% chance of amounts exceeding 0.05" east of Highway 183. Dry conditions can be expected through late week, with the next chance of precipitation occurring late Friday and/or Saturday, as moisture wraps around an upper low that will develop and slowly move from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley. Precipitation probabilities for areas east of Highway 283 remain low (<20% from only 26% of ensemble clusters), while areas near and east of Highway 183 have a 30-40% chance from 50-60% of the ensemble clusters as multiple waves rotate around this upper low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 BUFR soundings and short term ensembles are in good agreement, indicating a period of ceilings between 6000 and 12000 ft AGL ahead of an upper level trough crossing Kansas late tonight into early Tuesday. Although precipitation is not expected, some scattered sprinkles or very light showers cant be completely ruled out, though the chance is low (<20%), so no precipitation will be included in the 18z TAFs. Along with increasing clouds late tonight, a surface boundary will cross southwest Kansas between 09z and 18z Tuesday. Light winds today and early tonight will shift to the north at 10 to 20 knots as the surface boundary passes. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert