527
FXUS63 KDDC 180505
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60-80% chance for strong to marginally severe
  thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

- Potential training of thunderstorms along an expected stalled
  frontal boundary may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough of low
pressure dipping southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a strong lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
in extreme southeast Colorado.

An outside chance (20%) for isolated strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms remains for portions of southwest Kansas this evening
as the SREF indicates an upper level trough digging farther southeast
into the Great Basin. As the system approaches, a series of H5 vort
maxima will eject out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High
Plains, interacting with a sharpening dryline near and along the
Kansas/Colorado border. Combined with a deep moisture return providing
ample instability (MUCAPE values well above 2000-3000 J/kg) within
a field of steepening mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.
This is supported by the HREF indicating a 10% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch for extreme southwest Kansas.

Significant thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return late Tuesday into
early Wednesday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level
trough transitioning east through the Northern Rockies into the
Northern High Plains, sending an attendant cold front southeastward
into northern Kansas before stalling out Tuesday afternoon, somewhere
generally across southwest Kansas into north central Kansas. Ahead
of the approaching front, prevailing southerlies will continue to
enhance a moisture draw into central and portions of southwest Kansas
with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the mid/upper 60s(F),
providing more than ample instability. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates combined with increasingly favorable dynamic support aloft
in form of a field of intensifying southwesterlies spreading east
into western Kansas, will support likely thunderstorm development
in vicinity of the frontal boundary mid/late afternoon. The HREF
suggests the best chance for storms across west central Kansas and
portions of central Kansas where it indicates a 50-70% probability
of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter of an inch by early Wednesday
morning. Considering high QPF fields in excess of 1 to 1.5 inches
and possible training due to a projected stalled boundary, localized
flooding could be an issue.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across western Kansas. The
latest HREF indicates an 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping
below 75F, so expect lows generally in the lower/mid 70s(F).
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue Tuesday with H85 temperatures
holding in the lower 20s(C) ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.
The HREF paints a 70-90% probability of afternoon highs topping 90F
with the warmest temperatures in extreme southwest Kansas. Considerably
cooler temperatures are forecast behind the stalled frontal boundary
Wednesday, especially with increased cloud cover expected. The NBM
shows a 70-80% probability of high temperatures climbing above 70F
in west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor with a 60-70% probability
of highs topping 85F in south central Kansas. More widespread seasonal
temperatures are expected through the end of the week as the stalled
frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Expect highs
generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong winds will continue through the time period with
sustained winds at 20-30 kts and gusts 40 kts or greater at
times. By late afternoon a cold front will enter into northwest
and north central Kansas and we should see a line of
thunderstorms develop starting around HYS at 21Z and then into
the GCK and DDC areas around 00Z. These storms could contain
gusty winds and downpours from heavy rainfall. VFR flight
category for the most part for all terminals however as the
cloud cover increases with the storm coverage we could be
approaching or be in MVFR flight category between 03-06Z for
GCK, HYS, and DDC.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Tatro