Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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104 FXUS63 KDDC 151035 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 535 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot this afternoon across far southwest Kansas with highs well into the 90s. - Storm system Tuesday-Tuesday Night to bring increased thunderstorm potential, however severe weather risk is very low (Marginal 1 of 5 Risk area confined to neighboring eastern Colorado). - Eyes on a second, perhaps stronger storm system late in the week centered on Friday-Saturday time frame with another round of numerous thunderstorms and perhaps severe weather risk.. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The overnight water vapor loop and RAP objective analysis fields showed that our southwest Kansas region was within a narrow positive- tilted upper level ridge axis extending from roughly the Texas Panhandle through Kansas into the Great Lakes region. Upstream of southwest Kansas the pattern was a diffuse southwest flow aloft with weak mid and upper tropospheric winds. A trough in the main polar westerlies was well away from our region entering the Pacific Northwest region. This feature will eventually become a player in our sensible weather as we head into Tuesday and beyond. For today, more above to well-above normal temperatures will occur this afternoon as the lower troposphere remains very warm within the aforementioned ridge axis. Official temperature grids will be roughly 75th percentile NBM given the antecedent dry conditions over the past few weeks. 75th percentile NBM yields 95-96F across the Elkhart-Hugoton-Liberal corridor of far southwest Kansas. A leeside trough convergence axis will develop across the usual areas of far southeast Colorado. Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in this region of southeast Colorado, however storms are expected to be sub-severe given paltry SBCAPE and poor mid-level winds. Regardless, we will have some 15-20 POPs across our far western CWA adjacent CO border in the event one or two of these storms sneak far enough east into far western Kansas. As we head in to tonight and Monday, a southern branch of the westerlies will strengthen across the Southwest as the main trough axis begins to dig down the West Coast. Ahead of the trough across the Central Plains early Monday, most deterministic models show a north to south axis of increasing weak warm frontogenesis, supporting the development of elevated thunderstorms within this axis of forcing for ascent, mainly across north central Kansas. There is both global and high-resolution model support for this early Monday morning activity (HREF 75th percentile 6-hr QPF 0.10 to 0.25" mainly just to the east of our CWA from Beloit south down to Kingman, KS. There is enough of a signal to have some 20-30 POPs adjacent WFO ICT forecast area early Monday morning. A nebulous exit region of the southern branch jet is shown to nose into the TX-OK Panhandle and adjacent southwest KS later in the day Monday, which may interact with an outflow boundary from any of the morning convection to enhance low level convergence for possible renewed surface-based thunderstorm development. This is something we will keep watching, and we will have some 20 POPs for most of the forecast area Monday afternoon. The vertical wind shear profile would support loosely organized strong to perhaps a marginal severe storm or two (0-6km bulk shear magnitude of 25-30 knots), however coverage of any afternoon convection Monday would be quite sparse if any storms even form at all. The best chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will come Tuesday Night as the main body of the upper level trough moves out of the Rockies and across the Northern-Central Plains. Global models and ensemble systems continue to slowly come into better agreement of at least a loosely organized convective system or two moving out of Colorado and across much of the western half of Kansas Tuesday Night. Given the increased model and ensemble system continuity, the NBM POPs continue to increase for Tuesday Night, up to 50-60% across much of western and central Kansas. The forcing for ascent just ahead of the upper level system will likely progress fast enough such that heavy rainfall is fairly unlikely, hence latest 00Z run of 100-member Grand Ensemble 25-75th QPF totals are mainly in the few hundredths of an inch to three-tenths of an inch range. Isolated high-end amounts of up to three-quarters of an inch cannot be ruled out (based on 95th percentile), with the best area for an isolated amount that high generally west of Highway 83. The Tuesday storm system will lift northeast rapidly across the Dakotas mid-week, but the larger scale trough axis will remain across the West with the next wave expected to rotate around the base of the larger trough axis late in the week (Fri-Sat). This will support chances for more organized thunderstorms across southwest Kansas either or both days Friday and/or Saturday with an associated severe weather risk, perhaps. Details of this 2nd system are still quite unclear given model uncertainty beyond +5 days, so keep checking back for updates. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 South to southeast wind will continue this TAF period along with widespread VFR flight category in the ongoing warm pattern. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the Colorado line later this afternoon and early evening are not expected to approach any of the terminals, including GCK. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Hot and dry conditions will develop across mainly far southwest Kansas this afternoon. As temperatures warm into the mid 90s for a few hours, the relative humidity is forecast to fall into the 17 to 22% range mainly along and west of Highway 83 and along and south of Highway 50. Winds in this region will likely range 15 to 20 mph from the south-southeast with gusts at times around 25 mph. The combined conditions will likely support elevated to perhaps near-critical fire weather behavior for a few hours until sunset. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid