791
FXUS63 KDDC 141600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and dry weather is predicted through Monday.

- There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening and night,
  but it is too early to address details on severity.

- South to southeast winds and above average temperatures are
  expected through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

An upper level storm system will dig southward along the west
coast through Sunday, move eastward across the Rockies by Monday
and then eject northeastward into southern Canada by Wednesday.
This system will be too far northwest to push a cold front into
Kansas. Therefore, south to southeast winds and warm weather
will prevail each day. The southeastern edge of the upper level
troughing will clip southwest Kansas Tuesday evening, with large
scale forcing for ascent across the high plains where a dry
line will be located. Low level moisture is progged to be
marginal by mid September standards, with dewpoints only around
60F. This marginal moisture, combined with the typical early
fall, warm upper level temperatures, will only allow for
marginal to moderate surface based CAPE. CAPE density will be
low (tall and thin positive area on a Skew-t log P diagram).
Storms will probably form on the dry line to the west of Kansas
in the mid afternoon and then progress into western Kansas late
in the evening and overnight. These storms could be marginally
severe; but it is too early to provide a lot of detail. Due to
the scattered nature of expected rains, the ECMWF and CMCE
ensemble means only indicate 10-30% chances for > .5".

Following the aforementioned system, another strong upper level
trough will progress into the western United States by Wednesday
and then slowly edge eastward through Friday and Saturday and
approach the southern and central high plains. The precise
evolution of this upper level storm is uncertain; but the CMCE
and ECMWF ensemble means are very similar with the timing. The
best chance of thunderstorms is Friday and Saturday. Given the
expected higher dewpoints by Friday (mid 60s), along with
stronger instability and forcing for ascent, expect larger rain
totals. The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means show rain amounts of
.5 to 1.5" and .5 to 1" respectively for Friday into Saturday,
with the higher amounts in central Kansas and lower amounts
across far western Kansas. Of course, given the convective
nature of the rain, some areas will receive a lot more than
others. Given that a cold frontal passage is not expected
through at least Friday, expect continued warm weather. With
the higher moisture content, overnight lows will increase to the
mid to upper 60s and highs will continue to be well into the
80s to perhaps lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR expected through TAF pd. S/SE winds 15-20 kt will decrease around
10 kt towards dusk. Winds will increase once again to 15-20 kt tomorrow
with continued lee troughing.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden