938
FXUS63 KDDC 200753
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of storms south of Highway 50 this evening

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected Saturday night,
 with locally heavy rainfall expected.

- Dramatically cooler behind a strong cold front Sunday and
  Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The weather pattern over the next few days will consist of an upper
level area of high pressure over the Southern Plains and an upper
level low sitting above the Desert Southwest this morning, Four
Corners region tonight, and into the Central High Plains by Saturday
night. Southwest flow aloft is expected over the area as this
feature approaches.

As for the observable weather across western Kansas, expect mostly
clear skies this morning with increased mid level cloudiness this
afternoon. A weak mid to upper level shortwave will move into far
southwestern Kansas this afternoon and may trigger a few
thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that do form will glide eastward
along the KS/OK border as we head into the evening hours and into
central KS/OK by late evening. Most of the storms tonight are not
expected to be severe, but the strongest storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts approaching 60 mph. The hail threat is minimal,
but not zero if these storms move into an area that has more
moisture or instability that forecasted. Most places will remain dry
as this disturbance passes, but short range ensemble models depict a
20-40 percent chance of more than a tenth of precipitation south of
Highway 50. As for temperatures, highs today are expected to range
from the upper 80s across portions of west central Kansas to upper
90s to around 100 degrees across south central Kansas. Lows tonight
will range from the low 60s west to low 70s across central Kansas.

A better chance of precipitation is expected Saturday through Sunday
afternoon as the aforementioned upper level low moves just north of
the area. Precipitation chances increase first across far
southwestern Kansas Saturday morning and spread through the
remainder of the forecast area by Saturday evening. The best chance
of precipitation will be Saturday night with showers tapering off
Sunday. By the end of the event, the probability of receiving
over a half of an inch of rain ranging from 20-40 percent
across south central Kansas with over a 50 percent chance north
of a line from Great Bend, Dodge City, to Liberal. A few places
mainly north of the aforementioned line will most likely receive
over an inch of rain with this system.

This system will also usher in colder air to the area Saturday
through next week as a long wave upper level trough digs into the
Plains. This push of cooler air will start Saturday across far
western Kansas where highs will struggle to reach to around 80
degrees. The remainder of the forecast area should reach into the
80s with some low 90s across south central Kansas. Highs Sunday then
look to range from around 60 degrees across west central Kansas to
upper 70s across south central Kansas. The coldest morning looks to
be Monday morning where minimums will range from around 40 degrees
across west central Kansas to around 50 degrees across south central
Kansas. Highs will generally be in the 70s Monday through
Wednesday before the chances of highs around 80 degrees increase
Thursday. There may be a weak disturbance that brings increased
cloudiness and a slight chance of precipitation Tuesday.
Otherwise expect dry conditions next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon with mostly
clear skies. A slight chance of storms will be possible around
the DDC, GCK, and LBL terminals late this afternoon into the
early evening hours. Winds will generally be light and curling
from the north to south this morning. Southelry winds are then
expected for the remainder of the day with some gusts above 20
knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42