318
FXUS63 KDDC 212045
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rain is likely tonight across the southern tier
  from Ashland to Pratt and Medicine Lodge and possibly into
  southern Ford county.

- Temperatures will likely not get above the 50s Sunday
  afternoon.

- An upper level storm system will develop over Kansas by
  Tuesday and then intensify to the southeast or east of here by
  mid-week. There are small chances for rain Tuesday (10-20%)
  and then again Thursday and Friday (10-20%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A deep upper low over New Mexico will weaken as it moves into
confluent flow over the central plains Sunday. A northern
stream trough will push a cold front into southwest Kansas late
tonight and through all of southwest Kansas Sunday morning. As
the upper trough approaches, a low to mid level baroclinic zone
will set up across southwest Kansas. Plentiful low level
moisture will interact with this thermal gradient to yield
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The various models and
ensembles have steadily trended southward over the past 48
hours and continue to trend south today, including the HRRR/RAP
as well as the ensemble means of ICON/CMCE/ECMWF and GEFS. The
ensemble means indicate 50-80% chances of 1" or greater of rain
along and south of a line from Elkhart to Bucklin to Stafford,
with localized 1 to 2" rain amounts. The best chance of the
heaviest totals is in vicinity of Ashland, Coldwater, Medicine
Lodge and Pratt and possibly northward to Bucklin and Larned.
Lighter rain amounts of less than 1" are expected north of the
heaviest rain band, with the lightest in Scott City, WaKeeney
and Hays. The rain will gradually taper off from west to east
Sunday morning into the afternoon. Low stratus will hang around
much of the day Sunday, with some breaks possible later in the
day. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s. If
sunshine does not materialize, then afternoon temperatures will
only be in the mid 50s. If sun returns in the afternoon, then
readings in the upper 50s to near 60 are possible.

As the aforementioned system slowly exits, temperatures will
bottom out in the 40s Sunday night as weak surface high pressure
settles across the high plains, with lower 40s across the far
west where skies will be clear and upper 40s in central Kansas
where higher dewpoints will reside. Highs will warm into the
70s for Monday as full sun returns. However, another upper
level system will dig southeastward out of Canada and close off
over the southern plains or Deep South by Tuesday-Friday. A few
light showers are possible Tuesday before the system closes off.
Significant moisture will be slow to return into this system
initially so that partial sun will lead to highs in the 70s Tuesday
and Wednesday. However, by late week, moisture may wrap around
the system and bring better chances for showers into south
central Kansas and maybe even farther north and west. The
ensemble mean of the ECMWF indicates .1 to .25" rain amounts in
central Kansas for the Thursday night to Saturday time frame,
which is drier than the operational run. The CMCE mean is
farther east and shows even lighter amounts. The GEFS is also
farther east with the upper trough like the CMCE. Thus, some of
the wetter ensemble members of the ECMWF are outliers and may
be too far west with the upper trough, and therefore too wet. A
drier solution would mean highs in the 70s, but highs could
only be in the 60s if rain occurs.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A strong upper level disturbance will traverse the plains
tonight into Sunday. Widespread showers with a few rumbles of
thunder are expected to develop and move eastward across the TAF
sites this afternoon through Sunday morning along and in the
wake of a cold front. VFR CIGS will lower to MVFR CIGS this
evening, with the lower CIGS during periods of moderate to heavy
rain. Strong cold advection will develop between 06 and 09z,
resulting in low MVFR or IFR CIGS developing and persisting
through the end of the period. Some insolation is possible after
the end of the period, resulting in improving CIGS to MVFR.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch