Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
710 FXUS63 KDDC 232300 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A hot Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 100s. - Heat advisory criteria (105 HI or greater) is possible Monday and likely Tuesday for the Red Hills and areas east of highway 183. - Storm chances return Tuesday night in central Kansas and Wednesday night with an overnight MCS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Surface observations and upper air analysis shows a building 594 dm high in the Texas panhandle with a shortwave riding on the north side of the high in southern Colorado which has led to some developing storms south and east of Pueblo. Dewpoints in western Kansas are ranging from the low 60s to low 70s but are expected to mix out through the afternoon as winds turn to the southwest. A trough of low pressure is also located in eastern Colorado which is providing convergence at the surface to aid in the lift for the developing storms. For this evening CAMs are in good agreement that with the lower level moisture mixing out between 19-02Z that the storms in eastern Colorado could make it to the state line and then quickly diminish after sunset. With the lack of lower level moisture and little CAPE severe weather is not anticipated however we could see some brief gusty winds from the storms. Heading into Monday we should see the 594 dm high retrograde more into the desert southwest and with a 700 mb shortwave moving into eastern Colorado we should have a surface low develop east of the Denver metro. This will bring in breezy southwest winds through the day and combining with good sunshine we should have air temperatures reach easily to around 100 degrees. With the southwest winds HREF have shown mixing out the lower level moisture with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s in our eastern zones which will make it harder to reach advisory criteria but we should still get to around 105 which justifies having one out. By late afternoon into the early evening as the 700 mb shortwave moves into NW Kansas CAMs have been showing some isolated convection developing in NW Kansas and moving along the I-70 corridor through sunset and as a result some small POPS (~20%) have been put in. Tuesday we should once again see highs in the low 100s and more confidence that the Red Hills and east of highway 183 will reach heat advisory criteria. Forecast NBM apparent temperatures will be in the 104-107 range and combining with an approaching weak cold front we should also get a bump in temperatures with compressional heating. By late afternoon with a 700 mb shortwave coming out of the northwest and slight cooling in the mid levels we should see a band of thunderstorms develop along the front mainly in south central and central Kansas. Best opportunity for storms will be southeast of Dodge City. SPC and CSU-MLP both have a marginal risk that some of these storms could be severe with mainly a wind and hail threat. We should see a slight cooldown in temps for Wednesday and Thursday with long term ensembles showing a high building in Nebraska leading to east to northeast winds across Kansas and the 596dm high moving west and breaking down in the desert southwest. A shortwave in the Colorado rockies Wednesday afternoon is forecast to develop a MCS which will move across southwest Kansas Wednesday night and NBM POPs have responded with widespread 30-40% chances of rain and storms. After a brief warmup back to near 100 on Friday more rain and storms as well as cooler conditions are possible on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Light southerly winds aob 12 kts will continue through much of the period, with only a slight uptick into the 14-17 kt range with gusts of 24-27 kts after 19Z Monday afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ030-031-046- 065-066-081-090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Springer