543
FXUS63 KDDC 171005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impactful surface winds for today and Tuesday.

- Storm chances increase starting Tuesday afternoon with severe
  and flash flooding potential Tuesday night through Wednesday
  morning.

- Cooling trend with temperatures mid week due to the clouds and
  rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

07z observations and upper air analysis show a deepening surface
low located in northeast Colorado which is keeping the
overnight surface winds in western Kansas at 20-30 mph sustained
and gusts to 40 mph at times. With the well mixed boundary layer
and warm air mass temperatures have been slow to fall and are
in the mid to upper 70s. A low level jet has developed in
western Kansas and with modest instability a few showers and
storms have developed mainly in northwest Kansas.

For today as the low level jet subsides the morning convection
should be finished around sunrise and the rest of the day the
impactful weather will be highlighted by the wind. The surface
low in northeast Colorado will continue to strengthen as short
term models are hinting the mb pressure falling into the 980s.
As the lower levels become more well mixed with daytime heating
we should see the winds increase after 10 am with the strongest
winds and gusts in the late afternoon as the momentum transfer
could bring 40-50 kts winds from 700 mb to the surface. I went
with NBM90th percentile for sustained winds and gusts which
would put us at 25-35 mph sustained and gusts to 45-50 mph. Late
this afternoon a stout dryline will move into western Kansas
and may set the stage for an isolated storm. With mid level
temperatures forecast to be at 15-17 (C) there will be a strong
cap for any convection to overcome but if a storm can break
through it will have the shear and instability to produce hail
and gusty winds.

Tonight winds will remain strong through the night as the large
surface low extends from north central Nebraska through
northeast Colorado. A low level jet will develop in southwest
Kansas and with a modest mid level shortwave a few CAMs are
showing thunderstorm develop south and east of Dodge City. There
will be warm mid levels in this area too (around 16 C) so if any
convection that tries to develop will have to overcome a CAP and
at this point I kept POPs below 20%. We won`t cool much in the
overnight due to the well mixed surface layer as lows will be in
the lower 70s.

Tuesday most of the area will once again have strong southerly
winds through the day as sustained winds should be 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph. A strong cold front will move into
northwest Kansas and short term models forecast the front
stalling out roughly along a Syracuse to WaKeeney line. With a
mid level shortwave moving in and cooling mid level temperatures
we should see thunderstorms break out along the front starting
in north central Kansas and extending south and west through the
evening hours. With upper level winds running parallel to the
front there isn`t much of a push to the south and we could see
these storms basically train along the front and areas of heavy
rain roughly north and west of a Liberal to La Crosse line are
in play. WPC guidance has a large area of 1-2 inches of rain in
these areas. Ensemble forecast also tend to agree with 1-2
inches in the median range and higher outputs of 3 inches
possible. Severe weather is also possible and with a good
baroclinic zone and lower level shear...hail, wind, and and
isolated tornado are all possible.

Wednesday the higher chances of rain continue as much of
southwest Kansas has POPs in the 50-60% range. The frontal
boundary will remain stationary from Elkhart to Hays and with a
mid level shortwave providing the lift another round of
widespread rain and thunderstorms will move across southwest
Kansas. Thursday as the upper level winds turn more southerly
the front should lift north as a warm front and our rain chances
will end.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Surface and boundary layer winds will be the main weather
feature of interest during the time period as wind speeds
sustained should be in the 20-30 kt range with gusts over 40 kts
at times. The strongest winds should occur this afternoon
between 18-00Z when afternoon heating will allow the bets mixing
and this will be the time frame 40 kt winds will occur. Overall
winds will stay in the 20-30 kt range throughout the time frame.
VFR flight category is also expected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
KSZ043-061-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro