786
FXXX12 KWNP 201231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jun 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 3712 (S24W46,
Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) continued to indicate separation in the
intermediate and trailer spots, but maintained a weak BGD configuration.
Region 3713 (S14W33, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) exhibited additional growth
in its intermediate and leader spots and gained a delta configuration,
but was mostly quiet. Region 3716 (N10W39, Eki/Beta-Gamma) had overall
growth in areal coverage, yet only contributed low level C-class flares
as well. Region 3718 (N15E06, Cso/Beta) exhibited decay and was quiet.
Regions 3719 (S13E61, Cao/Beta) and 3720 (S05E70, Dao/Beta) were
numbered this period, with Region 3719 producing a C7 flare at 20/0936
UTC as it rotated further onto the visible disk.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 20-22 Jun, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the
flare potential of Regions 3712, 3713 and 3716.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 22 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S1 (Minor) levels on 20-22 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was indicative of persistent yet weakening CH
HSS influence. Total field averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component varied
between +/- 5 nT, and wind speeds continued to gradually decrease to
near 490 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was in a mostly
positive orientation.

.Forecast...
Further decreases in solar wind enhancements are expected on 20 Jun. A
negative polarity coronal hole is likely to move into a geoeffective
position on 21 and 22 Jun, increasing the chances for additional
enhancements in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to a
mildly disturbed solar wind environment.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 20 Jun as CH HSS effects
diminish. Unsettled conditions are expected on 21 and 22 Jun, with
active levels possible on 22 Jun, with the arrival of the aforementioned
CH HSS.