Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
263 FXXX12 KWNP 261231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 26 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1.0/Sf flare from Region 3723 (S19E37, Fai/beta-gamma-delta). Slight decay was observed in the leading and trailing spots of the region. Slight decay was also observed in Region 3720 (S06W10, Dai/beta). Region 3727 (S18E53, Cso/beta) grew in spot count. New Region 3729 (S03E72, Cro/beta) rotated around the E limb and was numbered. Modeling of the CME associated with the 35 degree filament eruption centered near S19W58 that was observed lifting off at 24/2310 UTC returned with flanking influences at Earth by late on 28 Jun. EUV darkening was observed at 25/2224 UTC around Region 3720. A likely associated CME was observed off the SSW limb at 25/2336 UTC. Initial analysis suggests weak glancing effects possible on 01 Jul. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely on 26-28 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3723 and 3720. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 26-28 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on 26-28 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected continued weak transient activity. The geomagnetic field ranged from 5 to near 12 nT with the Bz component between +11/-9 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 319-373 km/s. Phi was mostly negative with a deviation into a positive sector between 26/0319-0757 UTC .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to gradually recover to nominal levels through 27 Jun. An enhancement from the large filament eruption from late on 24 Jun is likely to arrive late on 28 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels, with possible isolated active periods, are expected to continue through 26 Jun followed by mostly quiet conditions on 27 Jun. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming is likely late on 28 Jun with the arrival of flanking effects from the 24 Jun CME.