Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
923 FXXX12 KWNP 181231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels following the M1.3/1f flare from Region 3711 (S11W60, Bxo/Beta) at 17/2035 UTC, and an M2.4 from Region 3712 at 18/1123 UTC. Two CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery after 17/2021 UTC, with one moving mostly southward and another moving west/southwest. The southerly CME is believed to be associated with a far-sided event. The second one is believed to be associated with the M1 event from Region 3711. However, given the location of Region 3711 and trajectory of the associated CME, no Earth-directed component is expected. The three most complex regions, Region 3712 (S26W19, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta), Region 3713 (S16W06, Beta-Gamma), and Region 3716 (N10W12, Dkc/Beta-Gamma) all exhibited growth, but were relatively quiet for the latter half of the period until Region 3712 produced the M2.4 flare. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. There are currently no obvious Earth-directed CMEs evident in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 18-20 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712 and possibly Region 3716. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 20 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S2 (Moderate) levels between 18-20 Jun as Active Regions that are currently at center disk move into more geo-effective positions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected the likely influences of a high speed stream (HSS) associated with a positive polarity coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speeds ranged between 400-560 km/s until around 17/2230 UTC when they began to increase to near 600 km/s, eventually peaking near 623 km/s at 18/0643 UTC. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT at 17/2313 UTC before returning to average near 8 nT for the remainder of the period. The Bz component was predominantly negative the first half of the period, reaching a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT at 17/2321 UTC before turning mostly north after 17/2045 UTC. The phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 18-19 Jun due to continued influence from the positive polarity CH HSS. Barring any CME activity, conditions should return to near background levels by 20 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels in response to a disturbed solar wind environment. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 18 Jun, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active levels are likely to continue on 19 Jun, with a return to mostly quiet conditions expected by 20 Jun as CH HSS effects diminish.