Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
488 FXXX12 KWNP 231231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 23 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 3835 (S25E56, Dso/beta) produced an M3.7/2n flare at 22/2139 UTC; the largest event of the period. Associated with this flare was a 540 sfu Tenflare. This region continues to develop as it rotates onto the disk. The largest region on the disk, Region 3828 (S12W13, Cai/beta-gamma) was quiet and stable. The remaining regions were either stable or in gradual decay, and generally quiescent throughout the period. A CME off the SE limb was associated with the M3.7 flare. Analysis and modelling of the CME suggests no Earth-directed component. .Forecast... There is a chance for solar activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 23-25 Sep. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,340 pfu at 22/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 23-25 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below warning threshold over 23-25 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-7 nT. No significant periods of Bz south were observed. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~340-450 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters may increase above background levels on 25 Sep in response to a positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet levels on 23-24 Sep. Unsettled conditions are possible on 25 due to the anticipated influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.