Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
153 FXXX12 KWNP 210031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to high (R2-Moderate) levels this period. Region 3719 (S13E55, Dao/Beta) produced an impulsive M5.7/1b flare at 20/2316 UTC. The region also produced C-class flares during the period. This region grew slightly as it developed trailer spot penumbra. Region 3713 (S14W39, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) produced a C5.0/Sf at 20/1223 UTC. The region exhibited additional growth in its intermediate and leader spots and gained a delta configuration. Region 3716 (N10W46, Ekc/Beta-Gamma) produced a C8.2/Sb flare at 20/1608 UTC. The region had overall growth in areal coverage. Region 3718 (N14W00, Hrx/Alpha) exhibited slight overall growth, but was quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 21-23 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3712, 3713, 3716 and 3719. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 23 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S1 (Minor) levels on 21-23 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment indicated mostly nominal conditions. Total field ranged between 3-6 nT, the Bz component varied between +/- 3 nT and wind speeds slowly decreased from about 500 km/s to near 450 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation. .Forecast... A negative polarity coronal hole is likely to move into a geoeffective position on 21-23 Jun, increasing the chances for additional enhancements in the solar wind environment. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under a mostly nominal environment. .Forecast... Unsettled conditions are expected on 21-23 Jun, with active levels possible on 22 Jun, with the arrival of the aforementioned CH HSS.