Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
799 FXXX12 KWNP 111231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels following an M9.5 flare at 10/1840 UTC from Region 3697 (S19, L=348). Accompanying the M9.5 flare was a Type II radio burst with an estimated speed of 754 km/s. While a CME was deemed to be associated with the flare, it did not appear to be Earth directed. Region 3709 (S09E20, Dao/beta) continued to exhibit slight growth in its trailing spots, yet lost its gamma configuration, and produce little activity. The remaining spot groups were unchanged or in decay. At approximately 10/2145 UTC, agitated field lines near N20E45 indicated a possible filament lift off, with reconnection brightening following shortly there after. An associated CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2312 UTC, with the bulk of the ejecta appearing to move mostly northward. Analysis confirmed the northerly trajectory, with no impacts expected at Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in available satellite imagery as of this summary. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong), for the remainder of 11 Jun. On 12-13 Jun, there is a decreasing chance for M-class flares, with only a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity as Region 3697 moves further beyond the SW limb. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased below minor (S1) levels, yet remains slightly enhanced. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 13 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced through 11 May, then decrease to normal levels on 12-13 May, barring any further enhancements. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the likely arrival of the 08 Jun CME at 10/1634 UTC. Solar wind speed reached a peak near 565 km/s, Bz observed southward deviations to -10 nT, and total field strength topped 16 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive until after 10/2100 UTC when it became variable. .Forecast... CME influence is likely to persist through midday on 11 Jun, then slowly dissipate through 12 Jun. A return to nominal levels is likely on 13 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to the arrive of the interplanetary shock described above. A 52 nT geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 10/1725 UTC at NGK. .Forecast... Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected during 11 Jun, with minor storm (G1) conditions likely. Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected on 12 Jun as CME effects diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 13 Jun.