Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
015 FXXX12 KWNP 221231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels with R1 (Minor) events observed. Region 3716 (N10W65, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M2.9 flare at 22/0855 UTC; the largest of the period. An M1.2 flare at 22/0438 UTC came from a source just beyond the E limb, near S18. The unseen source(s) beyond the SE limb also produced a C6.6 flare at 21/2350 UTC with Type-II radio emissions. Region 3720 (S05E43, Dri/beta) produced an M1.0 flare at 22/1106 UTC and developed additional spots in the trailer area. Slight overall decay was observed in Regions 3712 (S25W69, Ekc/beta-gamma), 3713 (S14W58, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), and 3716. The remaining regions were stable. Other activity included a DSF near N37W15 beginning at around 21/1934 UTC, though the bulk of the material appeared to get reabsorbed. Large scale magnetic field reconfiguration was observed in the vicinity of the DSF site in the hours following the event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 22-24 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 24 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 22-24 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... A nominal solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total field ranged between 2-5 nT, the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT, and wind speeds decreased from 400 km/s to 330 km/s. The phi angle was positive. .Forecast... Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 22-23 Jun. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 24 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled over 22-23 Jun, with periods of active conditions likely on 22 Jun, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected on 24 Jun.