380
FXUS63 KDLH 251743
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry today outside of some showers across the
  Borderlands.

- Isolated showers and storms possible Wednesday.

- Larger area of low pressure moves through the region late week
  with better rainfall chances. Additional rainfall chances
  heading into the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Quiet conditions were in place across the Northland this morning
following the passage of a cold front and the strong to severe
storms ahead of it. Heavy rainfall was observed across parts of
northwest Wisconsin during the storms leading to reports of
flash flooding. Skies have cleared out in the wake of the front
with some pockets of fog as temperatures rapidly cool to the
dewpoint. Skies will remain mainly clear through most of the day
with clouds increasing late this afternoon and evening ahead of
a secondary cold front/trough rotating south in association with
low pressure east of Hudson Bay. This may bring a few light
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to areas along the
International Border starting in the late afternoon hours and
extend into the overnight hours. A shortwave trough embedded in
northwest flow aloft will also push to the southeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. CAMs are bringing shower activity Tuesday
night across the Brainerd Lakes region with this trough, but no
strong or severe storms are expected. Highs today will top out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Shower/storm chances will persist for Wednesday as the upper
trough moves across the region. High pressure will be building
in from the west and will likely bring an end to any
shower/storm activity by midday with clearing skies for the
afternoon and into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler
on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and lower 70s.

As upper level ridging shifts across the Upper Midwest Thursday
night into Friday, a shortwave trough will move through the
Rockies and lead to cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains
Thursday night into Friday. With the Northland on the backside
of the departing high pressure, Gulf moisture will move
northward into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible starting late Thursday and remain possible into Friday.
Some strong to severe storms may be possible Friday ahead of the
cold front, but timing and ongoing convection may limit the
threat. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with PWATs
approaching 1.5". This will have to be watched with saturated
soils and high streamflows currently in place. Highs both days
will be in the 70s with some 60s possible on Friday given
extensive cloud cover and possible rainfall in the area.

Some showers may linger for Saturday on the backside of the
departing low before high pressure moves in for Saturday night
into Sunday. Additional rain chances will then return early in
the new week with shortwaves moving through a quasi-zonal flow
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR and dry conditions through this evening with gusty daytime
westerly winds gusting to 20 to 25 knots before turning light
and veering northwesterly tonight. Clouds will increase this
evening and tonight, with ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR
late tonight into Wednesday morning as some scattered showers
move into the Northland. Can`t rule out some brief IFR at
KHIB/KDLH late tonight into early Wednesday morning, but chances
are only 30-40% so left ceilings as MVFR for now. Shower
chances are low (20-30%), and have VCSH mention for most
terminals aside from a brief -SHRA at KINL and dry conditions
for KHYR. There may be an isolated thunderstorm across far
northern Minnesota (10% chance). Winds turn northerly Wednesday
morning, with some gusts up to 15 knots during the mid to late
morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Westerly winds will increase today to 10 to 15 knots with gusts
to 20 to 25 knots in the wake of a cold front. This will lead to
conditions hazardous to small craft beginning late this morning
and continuing into this evening when winds veer northeasterly
and diminish to 15 knots or less. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect. A brief uptick in winds will be possible from around
sunrise Wednesday through mid-morning with gusts to 20 knots
possible at the head of the lake before diminishing through the
remainder of the day and overnight to 15 knots or less as high
pressure builds in.

Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible
tonight through mid-morning Wednesday, but no strong or severe
storms are expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH