906
FXUS63 KDLH 160529
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The late season warmth continues with highs up to 10 to 15
  degrees above normal through much of the week.

- Low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into
  Monday, mainly along and north of the Iron Range.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  much of the week but the chances for soaking rainfall is low
  overall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

This is one of those days where it is very easy to get absorbed
in the fine details of what is going on in the atmosphere, even
though those details are those which only a meteorologist would
find neat or interesting, and have only a minor impact upon the
forecast as a whole. Sadly, since this discussion is for a
broader audience than hard core weather nerds and needs to be
produced in a reasonable time frame, these details will be
glossed over.

The cold front from yesterday has now broadened out to little
more than a trough axis and moisture boundary this afternoon,
and has pretty much stalled over eastern North Dakota, extending
southwest into central South Dakota. East of that boundary, we
have a nice cumulus field and some decent instability, but with
little/no shear and nothing to trigger any cells into more
vigorous growth, we have not yet seen any convection develop
over the forecast area. However, there is an area of convergence
along/ahead of that trough axis that may be able to produce
showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening
hours that should slide east overnight. Since the high
resolution models seem to have a similar depiction, have gone
with some slight to chance pops along and north of the Iron
Range for tonight into Monday. Our warm temperatures will also
continue with the southwest flow across the region. Temperatures
are running 10 to 15 degrees above normal, which is more like
August temperatures here in mid September.

This flow pattern continues into Tuesday and Wednesday, with
southwest flow both at the surface and aloft. Precipitation
chances are going to depend on getting some sort of feature to
help generate them, and while we have been developing some
decent instability with the heat and humidity, shear and forcing
parameters are weak and I have low confidence in getting
anything with much organization that could produce significant
rainfall. Unfortunately we have to maintain some small pops,
though there will be long periods of dry weather. Temperatures
will also remain significantly above normal.

For the later half of next week, there are some increasing
probabilities of getting significant rainfall, but these are
dependent upon getting the blocky pattern currently over the
eastern CONUS to break down, allowing the strong upper low over
the western CONUS to push a decent shortwave with some better
forcing in our direction. There is one around Wednesday which
misses us to the northwest, but there are hints of another that
may affect us in the Friday into Saturday time frame, as well as
signals that the blocking pattern finally breaks down by then
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Area radars showed isolated showers and thunderstorms dotting
northern Minnesota late this evening. The higher res models
forecast an increase in coverage overnight with KHIB most likely
to see a shower/storm. We have a mention there overnight and
left out of KINL for now. Fog may again form in spots tonight
but much of the guidance isn`t forecasting much but we`ll
continue some visibility reductions under this warm and humid
airmass.

The fog will lift around or before 14Z Monday morning for most
with prevailing conditions remaining VFR. Additional
showers/storms will develop Monday afternoon and night,
especially across far northern Minnesota. There is pretty good
agreement that several rounds of thunderstorms will affect far
northern Minnesota and especially KINL. A few strong storms may
occur as well. Conditions will drop to MVFR or lower with the
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Generally quiet conditions on the lake with winds of less than
15 kts and waves of less than two feet are expected through at
least Tuesday. Southeast winds should increase somewhat going
into the middle part of the week with building waves, but waves
should still remain under 3 feet. Of note, while most of the
lake should have generally south to southeast winds, the
southwest arm of the lake will have a more easterly perhaps even
northeast pattern during the daytime with the land so much
warmer than the lake, but veering into the southeast at night
with the temperature difference is not so large.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...LE