Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
465 FXUS63 KDLH 170528 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms into this evening mainly north-central MN and the Arrowhead. - A 5-10% chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm and a 5-15% chance of heavy rainfall in north-central Minnesota and the Arrowhead tonight. - Warm temperatures continue through mid-week before gradually cooling to normal by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low pressure deepening over the northern high plains is expected to trigger strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms over the northern plains this evening. As the storms move northeastward, a few stronger thunderstorms could (5-10% chance) move through just east enough to impact far north-central Minnesota later this evening as a result. If any stronger thunderstorms do realize into an isolated severe thunderstorm, hail around the size of a quarter would be the primary expected hazard type. The seasonably moist airmass over the Northland keeps concerns for heavy rainfall in the region too, so any strong to severe thunderstorm could (5% chance) be accompanied by heavy rainfall as well into early Tuesday morning. As the low moves eastward Tuesday, general thunderstorm chances (30-40% chance) are forecast into tomorrow morning. A stalled boundary along the Borderlands could (20-30% chance) also promote further general thunderstorms into Tuesday night. Drier weather looks likely (90% chance) on Wednesday as a drier air mass may promote decreased relative humidity from a drop in dew points into the 50 degree F range behind the passing low pressure. A western trough begins to breakdown Wednesday and low pressure lifts into the northern high plains to deepen into Thursday. A cold front passes over the region later Thursday. This Thursday night time period looks to be the best chances for more widespread rainfall (light to moderate) as the western low pressure centered in south-central Canada brings in cooler westerly air behind the front. This late work week into weekend time period looks to be the first time of returning to normal to below normal temperatures this fall! Stratiform and widespread rainfall returns later Saturday and into Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A few waves of thunderstorms are riding along the International Border this early this morning impacting INL. The sector of storms near INL at TAF issuance are slowly exiting the terminal with the next wave still over the Red River Valley. There is some uncertainty as to whether the subsequent wave can hold together and impact the terminal. The rest of Tuesday will be a challenge as high res guidance suggests minimal storm coverage through the day. However, given the favorable southerly flow and weak lift we have opted to put some VCTS in the afternoon hours despite the lack of a signal in the high res models. Additionally, we removed the threat of low level wind shear across the region as the strength of the low level winds is more confined to southern MN. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Light winds generally less than 15 knots are forecast outside of scattered thunderstorms where gusty, erratic winds may occur this evening and again Tuesday on the North Shore. Dry weather is forecast on Wednesday over the lake. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...Britt MARINE...NLy