457
FXUS63 KDLH 221838
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
138 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures bring a chance for frost tonight into
Monday morning.

- Fairly quiet weather this week with temperatures steadily warming
back well above normal.

- Next chance of widespread precipitation sometime next weekend
  or into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Much cooler temperatures have arrived along with a much drier
airmass. A diurnal cumulus deck should dissipate quickly into the
evening hours. Mostly clear conditions persist overnight, with some
high clouds beginning to push in before sunrise Monday. This should
still be conducive to seeing relatively chilly overnight
temperatures in the 30s and low 40s, though it is fairly
climatological for this time of year. This could lead to areas of
frost across much of the Northland away from Lake Superior. A Frost
Advisory remains in effect for tonight. Another quiet and seasonable
day Monday with high temperatures swinging back into the mid to high
60s.

Increasing clouds Monday evening into Tuesday as a shortwave
lengthens across the Northern Plains. Very dry air at the surface is
likely to prevent much in the way of precipitation from this system.
The rainiest solution from ensembles brings a trace to International
Falls and most models keep any precipitation from falling.

As that shortwave becomes a cutoff low and falls southward, we`ll
see ridging return, with a gentle warm up hedging towards mid to
upper 70s mid to late week. This is still 10 to 20 degrees above
normal, but is not expected to be as hot and muggy as last week`s
heinous summer-like heat wave. A lack of precipitation, a dry
airmass, and clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight.
Global ensembles bring back a widespread chance of precipitation
sometime next weekend into next week as a disturbance returns from
the Gulf of Mexico, but timing will be dependent on how fast the
ridge breaks down.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some gusty
northwest winds should calm this afternoon and evening become calm
overnight. Expect light southerly winds tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Breezy northwest winds will continue to come down through this
evening. Winds become easterly Monday which will probably lead to a
little chop along the North Shore and through the outer Apostle
Islands. No significant weather or winds expected early to mid week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-026-035>038.
WI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens