278
FXUS63 KDLH 151153
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
653 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The late season warmth continues with highs up to 10 to 15
  degrees above normal through much of the week.

- Low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are in place
  this afternoon.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  much of the week but the chances for soaking rainfall is low
  overall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

High pressure was in control across the eastern half of the
CONUS this morning with a few lingering light showers across
parts of northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Areas of fog
were also present across the region. With the high in place to
the east, the Upper Midwest remains on the western periphery
with persistent southwest flow through much of the column
keeping the supply of warm air flowing into the region. This
will lead to highs today in the 80s away from Lake Superior.
Additionally, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
today, mainly for areas along and west of US 53 and north of
Minnesota Highway 210. With the high to the east and a strong
trough to the west, this creates a ring of fire pattern from the
Deep South into the Plains and northward into the Upper Midwest.
While there will be chances for thunderstorms, severe storms are
not expected. While there will be around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE,
shear will be less than 20 knots and mid-level lapse rates
around 6 C/km so any storms that do develop will not be
organized and will not be a hail threat. Winds through the
column will be under 30 knots, so damaging wind gusts will not
be a threat either.

This pattern does not look to break down until next weekend or
into early next week. As such, temperatures will remain in the
upper 70s and 80s for highs with lows in the upper 50s and 60s.
Nearly daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist
across our western and northwestern zones as well. There is some
signal for perhaps some better chances for rainfall heading into
the weekend and for cooler temperatures during this time period
as well. Highs for the weekend look to cool closer to normal
with readings in the 60s and lower 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

IFR to LIFR fog is a little more widespread than previously
expected this morning. DLH, HIB and INL are seeing the main
impacts from this. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by
mid to late morning with VFR conditions persisting for the
remainder of the day. There will be a chance for showers and
isolated storms at INL late this afternoon and evening. This
activity may spread into HIB and DLH later in the evening, but
confidence on this is low. Some fog is also expected to
redevelop late in the period as well. Breezy southwest winds to
15 to 20 knots will be possible through the day before
diminishing after sunset.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Winds will be northeasterly today at 5 to 15 knots before
becoming variable tonight at 10 knots or less. Winds will remain
variable at 6 to 12 knots for Monday and Monday night before
turning more easterly for Tuesday. Areas of fog will be possible
tonight along with chances for showers and a few storms that
will linger into Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH