Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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834 FXUS63 KDLH 101732 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and quiet today with high pressure in control. - Chances for storms return for Tuesday and Wednesday with some strong to severe storms possible as well. - Warm and unsettled conditions persist for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 High pressure was centered over central Manitoba early this morning and extended across much of the Northern and Central Plains and the Upper Midwest bringing clear skies and quiet conditions. Some patchy fog was observed across the Northland during the early morning hours and has been dense in spots. Any lingering fog is expected to burn off quickly after sunrise. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s across portions of the area and a Frost Advisory remains in effect for those areas through 7AM. Mainly sunny and quiet conditions are expected for today with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. RH values this afternoon will fall below 30 percent in mainly areas, especially along and north of the Iron Range and into the Arrowhead and in the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be light, however, which will limit any fire weather conditions. Heading into tonight, an upper level trough and surface cold front will move across the Northern Plains and into the Red River Valley of the North by daybreak Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front and may start creeping into our far western zones after midnight. Models still differ on the timing of this activity with the NAM and Euro being the most progressive. The front will slowly work across the Northland through the day Tuesday and Tuesday evening with showers and storms persisting. There is a narrow window of opportunity for a few strong storms roughly from the I-35 corridor into the US 53 corridor in northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening hours. If there are breaks in the clouds that allow for some surface heating, Tds will approach 60F with bulk shear near 50 knots and CAPE approaching 500-1000 J/kg. This may lead to a minor wind and hail threat, but is very conditional on surface heating. Another trough/shortwave combo embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft will work across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for Wednesday into Wednesday night. With the timing of this system, better surface heating is expected across the region through the day prior to storm development. Forecast soundings show CAPE around 3000+ J/kg in the region with bulk shear in excess of 40 knots. Additionally, 700-500mb lapse rates will be approaching 8C/km. This parameter space lends itself to a large hail threat in the presence of organized storms, which is supported by other mesoscale and synoptic factors prior to upscale growth heading into the evening and overnight hours as a low level jet moves into the area. This will then see the threat shift to one of damaging winds. The best chance for the strongest storms across our area will be along and south of a Brainerd to Duluth line and all of northwest Wisconsin, but our entire forecast area may see strong storms as well. Additional chances for showers and storms will then be seen over the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Highs from Wednesday on will be in the 70s with some lower 80s at times. This would result in highs running near to slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions with light winds will last through the day and tonight. Early Tuesday morning, a cold front will move eastward across the Northland bringing showers and thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR ceilings will accompany the heaviest rain and ceilings should lift an hour or two after the front has passed in the late afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 High pressure will keep light and variable winds across western Lake Superior today and tonight. An approaching cold front on Tuesday will see winds turn southerly at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 22 knots near the Twin Ports during the afternoon hours. This may lead to a short period of conditions hazardous to small craft. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to move through during the day and into the evening as well. Storms may contain gusty winds and small hail. Winds then turn westerly behind the front for Tuesday night and Wednesday at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Another chance for showers and storms will be seen Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and some storms may be strong to severe. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...KML MARINE...BJH