Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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813 FXUS63 KDLH 231155 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 655 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain and some thunderstorms continue today into this evening. Severe weather is not expected. - Severe thunderstorms expected (risk level 2 out of 5) Monday evening and night. - Quieter weather Tuesday and Wednesday before thunderstorm chances return late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the area again today, mainly driven by steeper lapse rates in the cyclonic flow in the wake of the surface low that passed to our south yesterday morning. We will also have some shortwave within the broader scale trough axis moving across the area. The probability for severe storms is quite low, and we are mainly expecting some brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Highs should rise into the 70s for everywhere, with the cloud cover generally keeping temperatures cooler. Monday is our next day of concern with a Slight Risk of Severe storms from SPC. We have been watching this potential for a few days, with a wedge of warm humid air pushing into the area from the southwest and a warm front extending northwest to southeast across the area. The models are showing that we get high to even extreme levels of instability, but also a pretty significant cap with a layer of warm air around 800mb of over 20c and 700mb temps of over 10C. Even if we can`t break through that cap during the daytime, a low level jet may manage to break through it during the evening. Deep layer shear of 40 knots or more during the evening in combination with this CAPE tells us that if we can get that cap to break, we could have a serious severe weather event during the late afternoon and evening. We still have a lot of questions about this severe weather potential, most of which circle around breaking that cap. I think at least a portion of the area will bake under that cap with sunshine and hot and humid conditions, with high temperatures creeping into the mid 80s, which is most likely from the Brainerd Lakes southeast through the Hinckley area. Farther northeast is more likely to get storms and will be cooler. Unfortunately, this may lay out across some of the areas that have already had flooding from the storms over the last week. While this should move a lot faster, any rain upon these areas is not a good thing. The warm and humid airmass sticks around for Tuesday, so there will be lingering showers and storms around northwest Wisconsin. Highs to get on the warm side once again for Tuesday, with highs once again in the 80s for a large portion of the area. A much cooler and drier airmass moves in for Wednesday, with high temperatures cooling back into the 70s with some sunshine and quieter weather. Another period of wet weather with showers and thunderstorms is expected to affect the area in the Thursday through Saturday time frame, with several rounds of storms expected. At this time there is not much agreement on timing or strength, so have kept pops to chances for now. Warmer temperatures on Thursday and Friday should be followed by cooler temperatures for Saturday as a larger scale upper trough moves across the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas of stratus over the area this morning with MVFR ceilings are lingering, and will slowly shift east and lift to VFR by 17z. There are also showers over the arrowhead, and have included some initial VCSH groups for KDLH and KHIB. Additional showers and possible storm development expected for KINL, KHIB, KDLH and KHYR, during the late afternoon, and have included some VCSH/VCTS groups. Some short periods of MVFR conditions are possible during the afternoon hours as cells pass by. Fog should develop for several terminals after 06z, with some sites getting down to IFR visibilities. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 West to northwest winds of 10 knots or less will slowly back to the west to southwest this morning, then back still farther into the southwest to south late tonight. Monday winds will increase out of the southeast and pick up to 10 to 15 knots, then turn westerly as a front moves through the area Monday evening and overnight. The west to southwest winds increase still farther on Tuesday with gusts approaching 20 to 25 knots, when a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for parts of the area. Winds decrease once again Tuesday night into Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE