Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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283 FXUS63 KDLH 081145 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some morning sunshine, then a 20-30% chance for showers/storms this afternoon/evening. A few storms could contain gusty winds to ~40 mph and pea size hail. - Quiet weather Sunday and Monday. - Periodic shower/storm chances Tuesday and beyond with temperatures warming up. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 An upper-level trough and some mid-level frontogenesis is causing some light to moderate rain out there this morning. This will continue moving southeast and should clear northwest Wisconsin by mid-morning or so. In the wake of that, there should be a period of partially sunny skies that will promote some diurnal heating. Most models, similar in many ways to yesterday, suggest some pretty dry conditions developing today (min RH to ~30%) with steep low-level lapse rates as high as 8-9C/km by the afternoon and early evening. As a result, some blustery northwest winds are expected along with the development of isolated showers and storms. These will be aided synoptically by several weak passing waves aloft this afternoon associated with a broader upper-level low over Ontario. Without a lot of moisture, many to most places likely won`t see much shower/storm activity, but for those that do, the steep low- level lapse rates could promote some fairly robust downdrafts that could be capable of producing some locally strong wind gusts around 40 to 45 mph or so, along with perhaps some pea size hail. After sunset, showers/storms diminish leading to quiet weather. On Sunday, temperatures are trending down a smidge with more upper-level waves cycling through. Some relatively cooler northwest flow may promote more stratus clouds through the day. Highs will likely top out in the 60s and winds will again be a bit blustery. High pressure moves in Sunday night into Monday, and Monday is looking like a slightly warmer and sunny day. Going into Tuesday, there`s starting to be a little more model agreement on a low pressure system developing and traversing west-to-east somewhere in the vicinity of the Canadian border. An attendant cold/occluded front could promote a line of showers and storms. At this time, convective parameters look pretty unfavorable for severe weather (decent shear but low CAPE). We`ll have to keep an eye on how this evolves, but as of now, it doesn`t appear overly concerning. A fairly active pattern may continue into the middle and late week as models hint at a return to southerly flow (and warmer weather) following Tuesday`s system, then potentially more upper-level waves that could promote showers/storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Rain will impact HYR for the next hour or two, but with conditions remaining VFR. Then, several hours of sunshine and VFR conditions through the morning before more clouds start to develop this afternoon. Wind speeds will pick up from the northwest, and all terminals should see gusts around 15 to 20 kt through the day. Going into this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop (20-30% chance at any terminal). Right now, it`s looking like the highest thunder threat may be at HIB/DLH/HYR, but that could very well change in the next few hours. In any case, any showers/storms that develop will be brief and widely scattered. Main hazards from them include gusty and erratic winds up to around 35-40 kt, pea size hail, and heavy rain that could result in temporary MVFR restrictions. These shower/storm chances are expected to end shortly after sunset, at which point winds will also lighten up. VFR conditions are expected through tonight. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 West winds will pick up in speed today around 10-15 mph and gusting to 20 mph. Winds will hold steady or decrease a bit with similar directions going into Sunday. There will be a bit of rain this morning, and perhaps isolated showers/storms this afternoon/evening (~20% chance). Winds become light Sunday night and swing around to the northeast. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...JDS MARINE...JDS