641
FXUS63 KDLH 190541
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop this
  afternoon and evening. Hazards include damaging winds to 70
  mph, large hail up to 1.75", locally heavy rainfall possible
  leading to flash flooding, and a chance for a tornado or two.

- Much of the Northland is under a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for
  severe weather today. Storms will be beginning early this
  afternoon today and move east-southeast through the afternoon
  and evening.

- Cooler temps and high pressure on Wednesday will lead to quiet
  conditions. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances likely
  later this weekend into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This afternoon and evening:

Today is a fairly complex setup, which will be leading to a
conditional threat for severe weather development this afternoon and
evening. 15z surface analysis shows a stationary front located over
northwestern Minnesota, which will be the main source of lift this
afternoon and evening. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough will be
propagating through the northern Great Plains this afternoon and
evening, providing the necessary synoptic forcing to transition the
stationary front into a cold front that will through the CWA. Ahead
of this approaching cold front, a warm front draped across the CWA
from south of Brainerd, up to the Iron Range, and then south towards
the Twin Ports has been firing off scattered to widespread showers
and storms in portions of northeast and north-central Minnesota.

One of the most impressive ingredients with today`s severe weather
threat is the high amounts of precipitable water. The 14z
sounding from INL recorded a PWAT of 1.41", which comfortably
places it above the 90th percentile of climatology. Dewpoints
have already been rising into the low 70s across southern
portions of the CWA early this afternoon. Strong southerly flow
provided via a LLJ of 35-40 knots will help advect this deep
moisture northward. Despite persistent cloud cover this
morning, this moisture and warm air advection provided via the
LLJ is expected to help destabilize the atmosphere by this
afternoon across the majority of the CWA. MLCAPE by mid to late
this afternoon will be building around the 1500-2500 J/kg range.
Favorable 0-6km bulk shear of 35-45 knots will help provide
organization to the expected convection later this afternoon.

All severe weather hazards will be possible this afternoon,
including damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail up to 1.75",
locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding, and a tornado or two.
The tornado potential this afternoon will be contingent on the
amount of discrete convection that can form before storm mode
switches more linear as the storms move into northwest Wisconsin.
High amounts of 0-1km SRH of 200+ m2/s2 present around and south of
the Iron Range and low LCL heights continuing through the afternoon
supports the potential for a tornado or two late this afternoon into
early this evening. As storm mode switches to more linear this
evening, which is supported by the majority of CAMs, tornado concern
will transition towards possible QLCS tornados in the Arrowhead and
Douglas, Burnett, and Washburn early this evening. However, this is
much less of a concern compared to the discrete supercell potential
late this afternoon into the early evening.

One other primary concern with today into tonight`s storms is the
flash flooding potential. Antecedent soil moistures are already
saturated across much of the NE MN portion of the CWA, where
1-3" of rain has fallen over the past 24 hours. Additional
rainfall amounts of 2-6" will be possible this afternoon into
tonight as upscale growth leading to training storms occur along
the warm front mainly along and north of U.S. 2 in MN. Since
there has been an increasing trend in QPF in the 12z runs, the
Flood Watch has been expanded to include the inland portions of
Lake and Cook County.

The severe weather potential is expected to decrease this evening as
the storms propagate farther east into northwest Wisconsin, where
instability will be decreasing and shear will be less favorable.

Wednesday through Wednesday night:

After the cold front sweeps through tonight into tomorrow morning,
quieter weather will move in on Wednesday as high pressure builds
over the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be noticeably cooler
with highs in the low to mid 70s for most.

Thursday through the weekend:

The pattern resumes its active behavior with southwest flow bringing
another large system through the region starting Thursday and Friday
with a warm front before a stronger low moves through for Saturday
into Sunday. Ample moisture will move into the region from the Gulf
of Mexico with PWATs rising to near the top of climatology once
again. Instability continues to look anemic during much of this time
period with the heavy rainfall threat being more of a concern. NBM
probabilities have not changed much with chances of an inch or more
slightly increasing to around 60 to 80% and chances for 2 inches or
more at 30 to 50%. Given the rainfall currently occurring, many
areas will be primed to be mainly runoff with saturated ground and
already high rivers and streams.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A cold front remains draped across the region from the Minnesota
Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin early this morning. Most of
the showers and thunderstorms are located along and ahead of the
front and should clear the region over the next few hours. This
activity in mainly east of the terminals at issuance time with
just some lingering showers at KHYR. Behind the front, MVFR to
IFR ceilings are lingering with some pockets of MVFR
visibilities in areas of fog and drizzle. Slow improvement is
expected through the morning hours with VFR conditions returning
by late morning. Winds may be breezy at times this morning and
into this afternoon with gusts to 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Periods of showers and storms are expected over western Lake
Superior this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms
will be possible this afternoon and evening with wind gusts over
40 knots along with hail over 1 inch in diameter possible. A
cold front will work across the western part of the lake this
evening with storms expected to end following the passage of the
front.

Winds outside of any storms this evening ahead of the cold
front will be southerly at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25
knots, highest near the Twin Ports. These winds will also
generate waves of 2 to 5 feet along the North Shore. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for all of the nearshore waters for
today into tonight. Behind the cold front, winds will become
westerly tonight into Wednesday, gradually diminishing to 15
knots or less by mid morning Wednesday. High pressure moves in
Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018-019-
     025-026.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...LE