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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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488 FXUS63 KDLH 290543 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms and scattered thunderstorms return tonight and last into Saturday morning. Strong thunderstorms may affect the Brainerd Lakes area and near to south of the Twin Ports late tonight, but severe storms are not expected. - The next round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected Monday evening through Tuesday. - Scattered thunderstorm chances last into the 4th of July holiday time period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Low pressure centered over eastern Manitoba draping southward into North Dakota. An associated warm front moved over the region earlier today and brought widespread moderate rainfall of 0.5 to 2 inches to the Northland, with local amounts to 3.5 inches. Elevated stream levels have been observed along the North Shore where a Flood Advisory remains in effect until this evening for water over a few roads as well. An instability CAPE axis builds over northwest Minnesota today under partly sunny skies and moves northeastwards this evening to setup over the Brainerd Lakes area towards sunset today and lasting into the early overnight hours. This coincident CAPE axis and lower-end of modest mid-level lapse rates could support a few general thunderstorms late this evening, but confidence is not very high in this scenario playing out. If those storms do form, small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph would be the most likely hazards. More likely though is a secondary boundary moving into the Upper Midwest after Midnight tonight and producing a cluster or disorganized line of general thunderstorms traveling west to east from near or north of Brainerd through the Twin Ports or into east-central Minnesota from 2-7 AM Saturday. Have kept with around a quarter inch of rainfall in the forecast for the greater Brainerd Lakes for this overnight weak storm complex chance (30-40% chance of occurring). As the mean trough axis pulls east of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon, the lingering scattered rain showers and storms tomorrow decrease in coverage. High pressure builds in Saturday night and is forecast to create fairly ideal radiational cooling conditions by early Sunday morning. Lowered Saturday night min temperature for cold basins using the 20th percentile of guidance to get some upper-30s in the forecast (38-40 on the cold side right now). There are hints of even a few mid-30s for the interior Arrowhead, but was not quite confident in that solution right now to place those values in the forecast. Either way though, frost would not currently be expected at any locations. Dry and quiet weather sets up for Sunday and most of Monday with a mid-level ridge overhead. As the ridge axis slides east of the Northland Sunday night, a low-level southerly jet begins to increase moisture over the Upper Midwest into Monday morning. Surface low pressure begins to deepen over the southern Canadian Prairies Monday early Monday morning, with a negatively tilted trough axis aloft. Widespread moderate rainfall begins again in north-central Minnesota later Monday afternoon as the surface to mid-level frontal forcing shift eastward into the Red River valley region and coincide with the very moist air mass. Instability, support aloft and available shear are to be most favored for severe weather in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota for Monday evening. With an eastward shift of 50-100 miles though in these severe weather ingredients, then there could be a low end severe weather potential beyond strong thunderstorms currently expected in north-central Minnesota. Heavy rainfall of 0.5 (70% chance) to 1.5 (40% chance) inches is currently forecast into Tuesday daytime, but an upper-end 2-3 inches cannot be ruled out (highly localized 5% chance) somewhere in the Northland by Tuesday night. Lingering moisture aloft and diurnal instability lead to continued thunderstorm chances even into the mid and end of next week. Keep this potential in mind when beginning to finalize plans for the 4th of July. Temperatures are likely to warm back into the mid to upper-70s though for Tuesday onward. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 IFR conditions across the eastern half of the forecast area with thunderstorms moving across the northern half of the MN Arrowhead. The thunderstorms are expected to clip KHIB possibly with some hail and stronger winds, but may have to AMD depending on where the core goes. Otherwise, should be fairly quiet after the tstorms pass or die. Winds pick up from the northwest today with some gusts to 20 kt. MVFR becoming predominant until 22Z with VFR afterwards. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Southerly winds gusting to 20 knots along the South Shore this afternoon decrease this evening. Winds veer westerly tonight as a cold front passes over the lake. Northwesterly winds increase Saturday morning and are expected to gust to 20 knots along the North Shore and into the head of the lake tomorrow. There is not quite high enough confidence at this point for a Small Craft Advisory Saturday, but could be needed in subsequent forecasts. Winds back southwesterly around 10 knots Sunday as warmer southerly flow returns. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-021. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...NLy