Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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615 FXUS63 KDLH 142345 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 645 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be well above normal through much of the next week, at times 10-15F above normal. - There will be a chance, 20-50%/15-25%, for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. - Periodic chances for more showers/thunderstorms will continue into next week but no widespread significant rainfall is expected into late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A generally unimpressive weather day out there today, with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and some scattered showers with very isolated thunder so far. CAPE values remain on the low side, generally below 1000j/kg, and deep layer shear of only 20 knots. We do have a gradually weakening cold front approaching the area, but it is just not strong enough to serve as a decent focus for generating stronger activity. The cloud cover over the area this afternoon should gradually diminish from west to east tonight into Sunday. Sunday there will be a similar pattern of scattered showers and isolated storms, but displaced to the east as compared to today. Sunday night into Monday and even Tuesday a weak impulse aloft and some weak feature/boundary at the surface should be able to generate another round of showers and isolated thunder, mainly along and north of the Iron Range. This is all happening within a pattern of southwesterly flow aloft, sandwiched between a strong upper level ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS, and a strong trough moving onto the west coast. This will keep our temperatures on the warm side, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday through Tuesday. This rather blocky, slow to change pattern continues through the middle of the week, but that upper level trough finally pushes far enough to the east that we should begin seeing some increasing precipitation chances for the latter half of the work week. With the pattern continuing to bring well above normal temperatures and the potential for a feed of gulf moisture this far north, we may finally see some much needed rainfall with drought developing across the CWA. The southwest flow will continue to keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal through most of the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Widely scattered showers will continue over the next several hours before dissipating. Conditions will be VFR across the region prior to the onset of fog. Confidence in fog development is highest in locations that saw rainfall earlier today, most notably HIB. Visibility will range from MVFR to LIFR within areas of fog. Expect visibility improves in the morning once the fog clears. Conditions tomorrow will be mostly VFR, although late afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in INL. Winds will be generally be light and variable overnight, becoming gusty from the south-southwest on Sunday. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 East to northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots today to slowly veer to the east to southeast for tonight and Sunday. They will veer to southerly at similar speeds Sunday night through Monday night. With speeds remaining on the lower side, waves generally remain below 2 feet through Monday. Shower chances may be accompanied by some thunder this afternoon and night, then again Monday. Fog should develop once again tonight in the southwest arm of the lake. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...LE