Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
920
FNUS73 KDLH 190928
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Wood Lake...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
428 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 CDT on September 19.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Active weather day with a few showers and storms possible this
morning. We do expect a bit of a lull in activity around mid day
before more severe weather ramps up in the afternoon and evening.
The site is currently located under a slight risk for severe
storms (2 out of 5). Most of the high res guidance is showing cell
growth after 4PM with a cold front set to usher everything east
through the evening hours. Main hazards will be large hail
initially with a few tornadoes possible. As the evening
progresses damaging winds will become the more likely severe
threat.
Prior to the onset of storms winds will be breezy out of the south
with gusts up to 25 mph at times. Min RHs are also only expected
to dip down to around 60.
As far as rain totals go, it will be very feast or famine.
Current guidance has the area seeing a 50% chance of at least
0.25 inches of rain over the next 24 hours. However, if a storm
does manage to go over the location some of the high res guidance
has been showing accumulations in excess of 1.25 inches.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers
through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0700, then 3 until 1100, then 2 until
1600, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3100 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000-12300 knot-ft) increasing to fair to
good (27200-38300 knot-ft) late in the morning,
then increasing to good (46800-59300 knot-ft)
in the afternoon decreasing to good (36500
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 20 20 40
LAL.............1 3 3 2 2 4
Temp............68 68 72 77 78 79
RH..............70 73 68 60 62 60
20 ft wind......S 6 S 6 S 8 S 9 S 10 S 10
20 ft wind gust.13 14 19 21 21 21
Mix hgt (ft)....500 900 1600 2700 2800 2500
Transport wind..S 14 S 16 S 20 S 22 S 22 S 22
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10006 12 27 52 53 47
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1900, then 5 until 2100, then 4 until
2200, then 2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 21
mph in the evening and overnight becoming
light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the evening.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4500-24200 knot-ft) decreasing to
poor (4000 knot-ft) after 3 am.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70 20 10
LAL.............4 2 1
Temp............75 66 63
RH..............66 90 93
20 FT wind......S 10G21 S 6G14 S 4G11
Mix hgt (ft)....1700 600 500
Transport wind..S 16 S 17 SW 10
Haines index....3 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100024 8 5
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph early in
the morning.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4000-14900 knot-ft) increasing to
fair to good (24000-42800 knot-ft) late in the
morning, then increasing to good (48500-57700
knot-ft) early in the afternoon increasing to
excellent (62900-70500 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon decreasing to good (38700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............60 65 72
RH..............96 81 59
20 FT wind......SW 3G9 W 5G13 W 6G15
Mix hgt (ft)....500 2200 4800
Transport wind..SW 9 W 13 W 14
Haines index....4 3 4
SDspl kt-ft/10004 24 58
$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Jeb Backe
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2422379.12/DLH
.DELDT 09/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joseph.friedmeyer@usda.gov