Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
138
FNUS73 KDLH 181102
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for NWS Block I...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Duluth MN
602 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on September 18.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Another warm day with Min RHs around 40% this afternoon.
Persistent southerly winds will continue with a few gusts in the
afternoon around 20 mph. Low level inversions to start the day will
make for poor mixing initially. However, ventilation rates
recover to excellent by the afternoon. Rain chances will not
return until tomorrow morning.
The better chances will arrive Thursday afternoon as a cold front
moves west to east. This will also bring the threat of severe
storms capable of hail up to ping pong ball, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes possible. As far as rain totals go, it will be very
feast or famine. Current guidance has the area seeing a 60%
chance of at least 0.25 inches of rain over the next 48 hours.
However, if a storm does manage to go over the location some of
the high res guidance has been showing accumulations in excess of
1.50 inches.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph late
in the morning.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL in the
afternoon, then decreasing to 2000 ft AGL late
in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4300-21000 knot-ft) increasing to
good (30300-45400 knot-ft) late in the morning,
then increasing to good to excellent
(55300-74000 knot-ft) late in the afternoon
decreasing to fair to excellent (28000-64600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............67 64 66 69 73 75 79 80 81 82 83 81
RH..............62 66 65 58 52 51 47 44 43 41 44 45
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7
20 FT wind gust.14 15 16 18 19 18 16 16 16 16 16 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 13 14 16 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 18
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/10004 5 7 13 21 31 45 59 65 74 74 65
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
showers after 3 am. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 3 am. Chance of showers
early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0400, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3900-10300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC PC PC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 20 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Temp............80 76 72 70 69 67 66 66 66 64 64 63
RH..............49 60 65 68 66 68 67 67 67 70 69 73
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 14
Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100010 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning and early
afternoon. Chance of showers through the day.
Chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the morning and
early afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 3700 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph increasing to 23 to 26 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4700-18300 knot-ft) increasing to
good (30900-43000 knot-ft) late in the morning,
then increasing to good to excellent
(52300-71800 knot-ft) early in the afternoon
increasing to excellent (80900 knot-ft) late in
the afternoon decreasing to good (52600
knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.33 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 40 30 40 40 40 50
LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Temp............62 63 64 66 68 71 74 76 78 80 80 79
RH..............77 77 80 80 76 72 70 68 66 61 60 62
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9
20 FT wind gust.16 16 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.7 2.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 14 15 17 20 22 22 21 23 25 26 23
Haines index....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10005 5 11 15 18 31 38 43 56 72 85 53
$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Michael Mattmiller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422589.1/DLH
.DELDT 09/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.mattmiller@usda.gov