Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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760 FXUS63 KDMX 250446 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1146 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity dissipates this evening with cool temperatures overnight. - Milder temperatures return Wednesday through Monday. - Impacts from Helene appear to remain mostly south and east of forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Have had a few isolated strong storms develop in instability axis in the far southwest forecast area this afternoon. There have been a couple of reports of quarter to half dollar sized hail with the strongest storm but the activity seems to be slowly waning. Anticipate this convection to persist over the next few hours but any of the activity in the forecast area is likely to diminish as sunset approaches and daytime instability subsides. The widespread cumulus is also expected to dissipate into the evening with generally clear skies overnight across the forecast area. Have undercut guidance in favored cool spots including the Nishna valleys in the west given a very good raditional cooling setup. Some patchy sunrise fog may also develop in places as well. Much of the upcoming forecast is dominated by the upper low currently crossing the state and its eventual interaction with Helene. This low drops southeast of the state into Wednesday and eventually absorbs the remnants of Helene into this weekend. The bulk of the moisture, forcing and activity is not expected to remain mostly south and east of the forecast area through the weekend and PoPs have been lowered over much of the area except in the southeast forecast area. Otherwise, the polar jet remains well north of the state into Canada, therefore above normal temperatures are expected to prevail for the next several days with any cooler air remaining well to the north. The jet begins to buckle into early next week with a decent shortwave dropping into the Midwest by Monday. This sweeps a cold front across the state but with very limited moisture, little chance for precipitation is expected. However, cooler temperatures are likely to arrive by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A few areas of fog will occur tonight with the most likely locations being KFOD/KMCW and have added mention to those sites. Other sites could be impacted late tonight but confidence is lower. IFR or lower vsbys could occur in localized areas. Otherwise, VFR with light northwest wind through the day Wednesday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cogil AVIATION...Donavon