998
FXUS63 KDTX 261855
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid air moves back into the area tonight and
  lasts through early Friday.

- Showers and strong thunderstorms return Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Arrival of the strong H5 vorticity center will result in the peak of
the 1000-500mb height falls occurring at 21Z this afternoon. Plan
view of lower tropospheric winds generally have supported weak
convergence coalescing across the entire southern portions of the
cwa, even while system relative isentropic downglide has been
occuring in the midlevels. Opaque cloud cover limited MLCAPES of
under 1000 J/kg. Flow trajectories will become increasingly
anticyclonic over the next couple of hours resulting in quieting
weather for all of the area. Forecast soundings signal dynamic
lowering subsidence down between 3.0 and 6.0 kft agl. Enough
geostrophic flow to keep the surface mixed and should see any
saturation manifesting itself as low stratus.

Southeast Michigan will be influenced Thursday and Friday by
sprawling surface high pressure due to the combination of confluence
aloft and positioning on the broad anticyclonic shear side of upper
level jet. Pattern supports and forecast soundings confirm a dry
boundary the next couple of days with strong static stability
between 5.0 and 8.0 kft agl. A pleasant couple of days with highs in
the middle to upper 70s and surface dewpoints in the 50s.

Southwesterly return flow arrives Friday night and Saturday
increasing deep column thetae. An upright portion of the warm front
is timed to push through between 12-15Z Saturday setting the stage
for warm and humid conditions Saturday afternoon and evening.
Current forecast calls for numerous showers and Thunderstorms
Saturday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and less
humid weather is progged on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Cold front departs the Great Lakes but chances for isolated showers
over Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair exist through the rest of the
afternoon. The Michigan waters of Lake Erie are currently being hit
by a heavy rain band, but that too will be out by this evening. High
pressure moves in behind and brings cool, moderate, northerly flow
over the area. High pressure moves overhead on Thursday night into
Friday morning, dropping wind speeds to 5-10 knots. Switch to
southerly flow behind the high pressure center on Friday bringing
back moderate wind speeds accompanied by gusts to 20 knots. The next
low pressure system is set to track into the area on Saturday and
bring chances for showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

AVIATION...

A cold front dropping through the area will bring some rain chances
through about 20Z before drier post frontal air moves in. Mainly VFR
conditions today as CIGS are mainly above 5kft. The front will touch
off a few thundestorms but the should all remain east and south of
the a line from PHN to TTF. Winds will be westerly this afternoon
before flipping around to the NNW tonight. There should be a period
tonight when wrap around moisture on a secondary front drops down
through SE MI bringing a period of low clouds around 2500ft. Clouds
will lift on Thursday back to VFR while winds remain out of the NW.

For DTW/D21 Convection... There will likely be some light showers
through 20Z but convection should remain over eastern and southern
portions of the D21 airspace. Storms bring brief IFR restriction and
gusty wind while passing through the region.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less in thunderstorms, moderate late
  tonight after cold front passage.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......BC
AVIATION.....DRK


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.