Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
240 FXUS63 KDTX 260347 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1147 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The greater chance for the next round of showers and possibly thunderstorms will be Wednesday with severe weather not expected at this time. - Cooler and less humid air moves back into the area by Wednesday night and lasts through early Friday. - Showers and thunderstorms return Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION... Some pockets of lower stratus will exist across the Detroit corridor early this morning as low level moisture quality improvies, but with observational evidence suggesting coverage remains at scatterd. A brief broken coverage remains possible through this corridor, featuring a lower VFR/marginal MVFR ceiling. This moisture may offer a window for shallow fog formation during the early morning hours, although confidence in occurrence remains quite low owing to substantial high cloud and existing low level southwest gradient. A moist and weakly unstable environment brings potential for shower and thunderstorm development during the daylight period Wednesday. Greater potential with southward extent, highlighted by a main window from PTK southward for some convective showers and a lower probability mention of tsra. Prevailing southwest winds lasting throughout the day, shifting to northwest a frontal boundary sags through the region late afternoon into the evening. For DTW/D21 Convection...Low probability for thunderstorms will exist from late morning into the afternoon on Wednesday. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5kft overnight and Wednesday. * Low for thunderstorms Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 DISCUSSION... The early afternoon gusty winds associated with a wake low behind the morning MCS should slowly begin to fall through the remainder of the afternoon as conditions stabilize. Deep westerly flow will continue to draw in slightly better lower level moisture, which will support increasing daytime instability. However, the arrival of warmer temperatures aloft are expected to keep a cap on any additional development through the remainder of the afternoon. The rain cooled airmass and clouds have tempered daytime highs down slightly, especially across the south where clouds and back have lingered into the early afternoon. Though we still have managed to quickly climb into the lower 80s at some locations. Some hi-res models want to trigger off some precip along a weak prefrontal weak trough later this afternoon, mainly north of I-69. The cap should still in place and should keep any potential activity in check. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop downstream with the increasing low level jet and development of a surface low. The strongest activity is expected to hold south of Michigan, but could see activity that develops and moves along the southern border or possibly up to the I-94 corridor of Lower Michigan during the evening. Confidence is not high with this activity developing, especially up towards I-94. If it does, a strong thunderstorm would be possible, but will be losing instability with time into the tonight. By late morning/early afternoon tomorrow, the influence of the northern stream shortwave trough and cold front will increase lift across southeast Michigan in tandem with inbound low from the southwest and bring greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Meager mid level lapse rates and weak forcing with the lack of stronger lower level jet winds will preclude any severe mention at this time. However, MLCAPes of a few hundred J/kg look possible with good deep layer shear will support at least a general thunderstorm potential. Once the cold front sweeps through on Wednesday high pressure quickly builds across the region resulting in drier weather conditions for Thursday into Friday. A cooler airmass marked by 850 mb temperatures down to around 6-8C will help temperatures cool down more into the low/mid 70s outside of the urban heat island of Detroit that may be more in the upper 70s. Greater moisture advection returns on Friday as southwest flow increases ahead of the inbound trough sweeping across the plains. Greater consensus among models points towards Friday night into Saturday as the arrival time for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. High pressure and ridging aloft brings dry conditions to close out the weekend into early next week. MARINE... Breezy conditions in the wake of the morning line of thunderstorms gradually diminish over the course of the evening. There remains a low chance ( ~20-30%) for a few showers or non-severe storms to develop late this evening/tonight as a weak front sags through the region- potential generally favored for waters south of Port Austin. An upper level trough settles over the Great Lakes Wednesday as upper Midwest surface high pressure begins to builds toward the central lakes. Result is seasonably cooler, modest northerly flow for Wednesday and Thursday with the only chances for storms confined to the Ohio Valley, perhaps just clipping the far southern Great Lakes. Otherwise, the surface high drifts over the region through Friday before the next low arrives Friday night-Saturday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.