812
FXUS63 KDVN 241737
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active next 36 hours with thunderstorms, some strong to severe
  and heavy rain expected.

- Actual evolution of storms and timing is uncertain and falls
  into 3 different scenarios explained below.

- Quiet conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday before
  another round of storms moves in for Friday and Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Active period expected as hot and humid air will serve as the energy
for strong to severe thunderstorms through the short term.  A couple
different scenarios are possible with the storms in the next 6 to 30
hours.  Questions about storm mode and evolution and thus threats
abound at the time of this issuance, however a few things are known.
First, there is a warm front draped from Bismarck, ND southeast to
Dubuque. Also, the largescale flow is curved back to the SE and into
our area as well.  These two knowns suggest that convection to our
north in the next 6 to 30 hours will dive south and into our area.
The better chance for severe storms will likely be in the next 6 to
24 hours, before we transition to more of a flash flood threat.

Scenario 1: A MCV across Minnesota is expected to continue moving
southeast towards the the CWA this afternoon into the early evening.
Storms have/could redeveloped near this MCV.  With an extremely
unstable warm sector, and deep layer shear of 30 to 40kts storms
should continue to build. If they do redevelop, expect storms
to become cold pool dominant as a severe MCS barrels south
towards us in the early evening. With current environment, would
not be surprised to see widespread 70 MPH gusts with some
embedded higher gusts. This one is the least likely to occur,
however if it does, it will likely lead to the most severe
weather.

Scenario 2: Thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon across
western MN. Supercells initially will turn into a MCSs with a
strong cold pool. This system will track south and east towards
our area later this evening and into the overnight. How far west
this activity is will be tied to the left over cloud cover over
MN and the CAP to our SW. Do believe that this system will
track further SW and more into our CWA if this occurs. This
would bring severe winds to the area later in the overnight. As
these storms move out of the area, some OFBs would be left.
Storms would redevelop then in the late afternoon and into the
evening on Tuesday. While initial storms could lead to severe
winds, this will turn quickly into a slow moving storm
environment and flash flooding will be likely.

Scenario 3: No storms develop until Tuesday.  While this seems to be
the less likely solution, it is still plausible.  In this case, a
cold front tied to convection across WI and eastern IL, will stall
across the area.  Daytime heating, along with the boundary will lead
to showers and storms forming. Deep layer shear is lower, so strong
to severe storms will be short lived before transitioning to a heavy
rain and flash flooding threat.  Right now, this threat is maximized
along and south of I80.  That could change though.

Regardless of what happens, we expect impactful weather through the
next 36 hours.

As far as heat goes, with thunderstorm potential through the
period, high temperature forecast will be tricky. Tomorrow has a
high bust potential. As such, will hold off on any heat advisory
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

As we go into the day Wednesday, any lingering showers or
storms should diminish from increased subsidence from an area of
high pressure moving into the area. This high pressure system
will remain in control through the day Thursday, resulting in
more seasonal temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday, with
highs in the lower to middle 80s. Friday and Saturday could be
active, with more chances of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Expect VFR conditions to be the main flight category through the
period. There are chances for thunderstorms through the period,
however timing and confidence is very low. Expect amendments
later in the period as timing in storms increases. These storms
could bring IFR vsbys and strong gusty winds of close to 50kts.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No significant changes for the Cedar River basin this evening
with the new forecasts. The rise on the Cedar River at Cedar
Rapids has been slowed some and still may reach 14 ft or
Moderate flood stage early Friday.

For the Mississippi, flood watches have been converted to flood
warnings for Dubuque Lock and Dam, Camanche, and Rock Island
Lock and Dam sites this evening. Additional warnings can be
expected in the coming days.

.Previous Discussion.

The Mississippi River is expected to reach flood stage at
multiple locations, including the Rock Island gage, by the
middle of this week. Long term we expect the Mississippi to
reach Moderate and/or Major flood stages the week of the Fourth
of July, with the crest at the Rock Island gage possibly
reaching just over 18 feet early on the Fourth of July.
However, a larger margin of error should be taken into
consideration when forecasting precipitation amounts and
locations in the 7-10 day timescale. Watches are currently out
for most of the Mississippi River and warnings will follow in
the next few as a clearer picture is drawn on what
precipitation and routed water we have coming downstream. In the
latest forecast package, we have opted to upgrade Gladstone and
Burlington to a River Flood Warning, aided by the recent
rainfall north of the area.

The Rock River is also expected to reach flood stage in Joslin,
with an increase noted into Action Stage at Moline. A River Flood
Warning has been issued for Joslin in this latest forecast
package, which is forecast to hit flood stage tomorrow
afternoon. We will continue to see additional rainfall through
this coming week, which may lead to further fluctuations in the
river levels. If heavy rainfall is seen, then increases can be
expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Gibbs
HYDROLOGY...Gross