000
FXUS63 KDVN 242336
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At or slightly above normal temperatures the rest of the week
  that become at or slightly below normal over the weekend.

- Dry conditions to prevail Wednesday into Friday.

- Potentially active weather late week and into early next week
  but there is high uncertainty regarding the rain and any
  impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

This Afternoon and Tonight, an upper low will continue to drop
SSE across the western and southern CWA. Bumped up POPs for this
afternoon in the SW CWA. This activity is expected to diminish
towards sunset with clearing skies forecast for the remainder of
the night. Winds will become nearly calm, so there is the
possibility for some fog late tonight and early Wednesday. Have
some aviation fog mentioned for BRL, but opted to keep mention
out of grids as confidence is low. Lows will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday through most of Friday, dry conditions will prevail as
high pressure builds into the area. The upper low will continue
to drop south into SE MO. There still remains some uncertainty
on whether the upper low to the south may bring some rains back
into the south and southeast part of the CWA. Through
collaboration, believe the drier NE flow will keep rain at bay
initially and opted to cut POPs Friday. There is still some
slight or chance POPS south of I-80 Friday, but believe the
downward trend will continue and it may be a predominantly dry
day for all.

Saturday through Monday, there remains a good deal of uncertainty
with whether any tropical remnants get ushered NW into the area
as the upper low to our south interacts with the system. How
far south and southeast the upper low gets will hinder the
chances of tropical moisture getting this far NNW. At this time,
the current blend seems reasonable given the uncertainties. The
current best chances (30 to 50 percent) for rain for Friday
night and Saturday, with 20 to 40 POPS focused across the SE
half of the CWA through Monday. Highs through much of the long
term are slated for the mid 70s to near 80. Cooler readings
would be possible for the weekend if rain chances increase.
There is still some time to work out details as we get future
model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conds for much of this taf period. The exception will be at
KBRL/KMLI 06-14z/25 for the potential for MVFR BR due to calm
winds and moist ground from recent rain.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Haase