Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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857 FXUS63 KDVN 250915 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 415 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid today with strong to severe storms late this afternoon and tonight - Heavy rain expected with any storm, which may cause flooding issues - Quiet conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday before another round of storms moves in for Friday and Saturday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The next 24 hours or so will be active with heat and humidity and storm potential, possibly severe, early this morning and then later this afternoon and through the overnight tonight. The HRRR has verified fairly well so far this early morning keeping the area dry while convection in SE MN that the NAMNST was showing never materialized. Followed the HRRR generalized solution, which has also shown some wavering from run to run, so confidence is on the lower end. And as of now, some cells have just developed in Grant Co, so adjusted immediate short term in the N and NE CWA. These may become strong to severe in the next few hours, and may build SW as well. The HRRR has hints of this moving east out of the area and sparking new storms along a line from FFL to SQI after daybreak. This will move off toward mid to late morning. Attention will then shift to development along the cold front sinking into the area. The exact placement is not certain, but development appears to be 3 and 5 pm and will go up rather quickly given the extreme instability over the area with MUCAPE of 4-5K J/KG. The storm coverage will expand quickly focused across areas south of HYW 30 lingering into mid to late evening. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heavy rains are likely which could result in some flooding potential. The RAP shows PWATS of 2 to 2.5" this pm and eve. Localized 1 to 3" rain amounts are not out of the question. Late tonight a complex develops in western IA and dives southeast into SE IA, NE MO, and western IL. The SPC has a Slight risk or level 2 of 5 for severe storms south of HYW 30. The main risk is damaging wind and hail with a secondary threat for tornadoes. The main risk for the complex overnight is damaging winds with a continued secondary risk for tornadoes. The temperature and heat index forecast is rather uncertain and depends on the amount of storm activity and clouds. Regardless it will be hot with highs in the low to mid 90s and HI in the upper 90s to near 100 at times. Opted to hold off on an advisory due to the expected cloud/storms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Previous Discussion... Active pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the long term. While there appears to be a break in showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday, it does not look like a completely dry forecast. We remain aligned in the track for ridge riders. Any of these could produce showers and storms. Late in the week, another more robust system is expected to affect the area. This will bring what appears to be a MCS into the area Friday morning. While there could be strong to severe storms, what does seem more likely is the chance for heavy rain. This will just add to the flooding across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Latest HRRR, which has been handling current conditions well, now keeps much of the area dry until after 12Z. CID and DBQ may now not see convection until late afternoon. It shows some storms possible near MLI and BRL in the 14 to 17Z time frame and put a prob group in for those sites. LLWS will be possible at all sites until late morning. After a midday lull in activity, expect storms to refire towards late afternoon and into the evening hours as confidence in the HRRR has increased. MVFR/IFR are possible within storms, but VFR will prevail otherwise. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 929 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 No significant changes for the Cedar River basin this evening with the new forecasts. The rise on the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids has been slowed some and still may reach 14 ft or Moderate flood stage early Friday. For the Mississippi, flood watches have been converted to flood warnings for Dubuque Lock and Dam, Camanche, and Rock Island Lock and Dam sites this evening. Additional warnings can be expected in the coming days. .Previous Discussion. The Mississippi River is expected to reach flood stage at multiple locations, including the Rock Island gage, by the middle of this week. Long term we expect the Mississippi to reach Moderate and/or Major flood stages the week of the Fourth of July, with the crest at the Rock Island gage possibly reaching just over 18 feet early on the Fourth of July. However, a larger margin of error should be taken into consideration when forecasting precipitation amounts and locations in the 7-10 day timescale. Watches are currently out for most of the Mississippi River and warnings will follow in the next few as a clearer picture is drawn on what precipitation and routed water we have coming downstream. In the latest forecast package, we have opted to upgrade Gladstone and Burlington to a River Flood Warning, aided by the recent rainfall north of the area. The Rock River is also expected to reach flood stage in Joslin, with an increase noted into Action Stage at Moline. A River Flood Warning has been issued for Joslin in this latest forecast package, which is forecast to hit flood stage tomorrow afternoon. We will continue to see additional rainfall through this coming week, which may lead to further fluctuations in the river levels. If heavy rainfall is seen, then increases can be expected. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...14 HYDROLOGY...Gross